How could one get a “fundamental” shift by any other method?
Reality is not necessarily constrained by that which is physical. The Laws of Physics themselves; the Laws of Logic, several other such wholly immaterial and non-contingent elements are all considered real despite not existing. (Numbers for example.)
It is possible to postulate a counterfactual where any of these could be altered.
Yes, but the axioms of probability theory aren’t (yes, it has axioms).
Enter the paradox I spoke of. The fact that certain things aren’t subject to change itself can be subject to change.
Reality is not necessarily constrained by that which is physical. The Laws of Physics themselves; the Laws of Logic, several other such wholly immaterial and non-contingent elements are all considered real despite not existing. (Numbers for example.)
Any shift to the “Laws of Logic” is equivalent to a change in axioms, so we wouldn’t be talking about our probability. And also, all this accounted for by the whole “average across all outcomes” bit (this is a bit hand-wavy, since one has to weight the average by the Kolmogorov complexity (or some such) of the various outcomes).
It is possible to postulate a counterfactual where any of these could be altered.
Nope. Here are the natural numbers {0,1,2,...} (source):
There is a natural number 0.
Every natural number a has a natural number successor, denoted by S(a).
There is no natural number whose successor is 0.
S is injective, i.e. if a ≠ b, then S(a) ≠ S(b).
If a property is possessed by 0 and also by the successor of every natural number which possesses it, then it is possessed by all natural numbers.
This has uniquely identified the natural numbers. There isn’t a counterfactual where those 5 axioms don’t identify the naturals.
Enter the paradox I spoke of. The fact that certain things aren’t subject to change itself can be subject to change.
But you said:
Sure, you can change the axioms you start with, but then you are talking about different objects.
No, there is no paradox. If one changes the axioms of probability, then you have a new, different version of probability, which cannot be directly compared to our current version, because they are different constructions.
Reality is not necessarily constrained by that which is physical. The Laws of Physics themselves; the Laws of Logic, several other such wholly immaterial and non-contingent elements are all considered real despite not existing. (Numbers for example.)
It is possible to postulate a counterfactual where any of these could be altered.
Enter the paradox I spoke of. The fact that certain things aren’t subject to change itself can be subject to change.
Any shift to the “Laws of Logic” is equivalent to a change in axioms, so we wouldn’t be talking about our probability. And also, all this accounted for by the whole “average across all outcomes” bit (this is a bit hand-wavy, since one has to weight the average by the Kolmogorov complexity (or some such) of the various outcomes).
Nope. Here are the natural numbers {0,1,2,...} (source):
There is a natural number 0.
Every natural number a has a natural number successor, denoted by S(a).
There is no natural number whose successor is 0.
S is injective, i.e. if a ≠ b, then S(a) ≠ S(b).
If a property is possessed by 0 and also by the successor of every natural number which possesses it, then it is possessed by all natural numbers.
This has uniquely identified the natural numbers. There isn’t a counterfactual where those 5 axioms don’t identify the naturals.
But you said:
It’s a paradox. You’re expecting it to make sense and not be contradictory. That’s… the opposite of correct.
No, there is no paradox. If one changes the axioms of probability, then you have a new, different version of probability, which cannot be directly compared to our current version, because they are different constructions.