It’s like saying that because a coin has come up heads every time you’ve flipped it before it’s now likely to come up heads this time.
I’m puzzled and wonder if I’m missing your point because this update makes perfect sense to me. Let’s say that I start for a prior for whether the coin is fair, P(fair), a prior for whether it is biased towards heads, P(headbiased), and a prior for whether it is biased towards tails P(tailbiased). My updated probability for P(headbiased) increases if I get lots of heads on the coin and few or no tails. It’ll probably help if we understand each other on this simpler example before moving on to appeals to authority.
I’m puzzled and wonder if I’m missing your point because this update makes perfect sense to me. Let’s say that I start for a prior for whether the coin is fair, P(fair), a prior for whether it is biased towards heads, P(headbiased), and a prior for whether it is biased towards tails P(tailbiased). My updated probability for P(headbiased) increases if I get lots of heads on the coin and few or no tails. It’ll probably help if we understand each other on this simpler example before moving on to appeals to authority.