This is like claiming that because a coin came up heads twenty times and tails ten times it is 2x more likely to come up heads this time. Absent some other reason to justify the correlation between your friend’s accuracy and the current instance, such beliefs are invalid.
If in 30 coin flips have occurred with it being that far off, I should move my probability estimate sllightly towards the coin being weighted to one side. If for example, the coin instead had all 30 flips heads, I presume you would update in the direction of the coin being weighted to be more likely to come down on one side. It won’t be 2x as more likely because the hypothesis that the coin is actually fair started with a very large prior. Moreover, the easy ways to make a coin weighted make it always come out on one side. But the essential Bayesian update in this context makes sense to put a higher probability on the coin being weighted to be more likely to comes up heads than tales.
“Bayesian probability assessments work very well for making predictions and modeling unknowns, but that’s just not sufficient to the question of what constitutes knowledge, what is known, and/or what is true.”
Bayesian probability assessments are an extremely poor tool for assertions of truth.
If in 30 coin flips have occurred with it being that far off, I should move my probability estimate sllightly towards the coin being weighted to one side. If for example, the coin instead had all 30 flips heads, I presume you would update in the direction of the coin being weighted to be more likely to come down on one side. It won’t be 2x as more likely because the hypothesis that the coin is actually fair started with a very large prior. Moreover, the easy ways to make a coin weighted make it always come out on one side. But the essential Bayesian update in this context makes sense to put a higher probability on the coin being weighted to be more likely to comes up heads than tales.
“Bayesian probability assessments work very well for making predictions and modeling unknowns, but that’s just not sufficient to the question of what constitutes knowledge, what is known, and/or what is true.”
Bayesian probability assessments are an extremely poor tool for assertions of truth.