I’m saying that the Bayesian framework is restricted to probabilities, and as such is entirely unsuited to non-probabilistic matters. Such as the number of fingers I am currently seeing on my right hand as I type this. For you, it’s a question of what you predict to be true. For me, it’s a specific manifested instance, and as such is not subject to any form of probabilistic assessments.
Actually, that’s a probabilistic assertion that you are seeing n fingers for whatever n you choose. You could for example be hallucinating. Or could miscount how many fingers you have. Humans aren’t used to thinking that way, and it generally helps for practical purposes not to think this way. But presumably if five minutes from now a person in a white lab coat walked into your room and explained that you had been tested with a new reversible neurological procedure that specifically alters how many fingers people think they have on their hands and makes them forget that they had any such procedure, you wouldn’t assign zero chance it is a prank.
Note by the way there are stroke victims who assert contrary to all evidence that they can move a paralyzed limb. How certain are you that you aren’t a victim of such a stroke? Is your ability to move your arms a specific manifested instance? Are you sure of that? If that case is different than the finger example how is it different?
Actually, that’s a probabilistic assertion that you are seeing n fingers for whatever n you choose. You could for example be hallucinating. Or could miscount how many fingers you have.
If I am hallucinating, I am still seeing what I am seeing. If I miscount, I still see what I see. There is nothing probabilistic about the exact condition of what it is that I am seeing. You can, if you wish to eschew naive realism, make fundamental assertions about the necessarily inductive nature of all empirical observations—but then, there’s a reason why I phrased my statement the way I did: not “I can see how many fingers I really have” but “I know how many fingers I am currently seeing”.
Are you able to properly parse the difference between these two, or do I need to go further in depth about this?
(The remainder of your post expounded further along the lines of an explanation into your response, which itself was based on an eroneous reading of what I had written. As such I am disregarding it.)
Actually, that’s a probabilistic assertion that you are seeing n fingers for whatever n you choose. You could for example be hallucinating. Or could miscount how many fingers you have. Humans aren’t used to thinking that way, and it generally helps for practical purposes not to think this way. But presumably if five minutes from now a person in a white lab coat walked into your room and explained that you had been tested with a new reversible neurological procedure that specifically alters how many fingers people think they have on their hands and makes them forget that they had any such procedure, you wouldn’t assign zero chance it is a prank.
Note by the way there are stroke victims who assert contrary to all evidence that they can move a paralyzed limb. How certain are you that you aren’t a victim of such a stroke? Is your ability to move your arms a specific manifested instance? Are you sure of that? If that case is different than the finger example how is it different?
If I am hallucinating, I am still seeing what I am seeing. If I miscount, I still see what I see. There is nothing probabilistic about the exact condition of what it is that I am seeing. You can, if you wish to eschew naive realism, make fundamental assertions about the necessarily inductive nature of all empirical observations—but then, there’s a reason why I phrased my statement the way I did: not “I can see how many fingers I really have” but “I know how many fingers I am currently seeing”.
Are you able to properly parse the difference between these two, or do I need to go further in depth about this?
(The remainder of your post expounded further along the lines of an explanation into your response, which itself was based on an eroneous reading of what I had written. As such I am disregarding it.)