IMO there’s a big difference between “obviously material progress is good” and “obviously some progress is good”—it could be that after a careful consideration of the evidence, it turns out that the thing we need to do is focus on spiritual progress and all become monks (or w/e) and then progress can be measured in how rapidly that transition happens.
[Like, in one era the accumulation of slaves would have been a sign of progress, and now we view it as a sign of regress.]
There’s a second point that you might be making, that it’s weird to have a ‘theory of progress’ if your forecasts show the world getting worse, even if we do our best. (For example, suppose there was a massive volcanic eruption and so we knew volcanic winter was coming.) But I think even then it’s important to figure out what ways we can improve in and make those changes, even if the background is decay instead of progress.
IMO there’s a big difference between “obviously material progress is good” and “obviously some progress is good”—it could be that after a careful consideration of the evidence, it turns out that the thing we need to do is focus on spiritual progress and all become monks (or w/e) and then progress can be measured in how rapidly that transition happens.
[Like, in one era the accumulation of slaves would have been a sign of progress, and now we view it as a sign of regress.]
There’s a second point that you might be making, that it’s weird to have a ‘theory of progress’ if your forecasts show the world getting worse, even if we do our best. (For example, suppose there was a massive volcanic eruption and so we knew volcanic winter was coming.) But I think even then it’s important to figure out what ways we can improve in and make those changes, even if the background is decay instead of progress.