Yes, that does make sense. The problem was that I was thinking of B as the event that Nick says a certain percentage, rather than the event that he says the bill is Eliezer’s with the percentage being the probability that he’s right. Thanks!
Yes, that does make sense. The problem was that I was thinking of B as the event that Nick says a certain percentage, rather than the event that he says the bill is Eliezer’s with the percentage being the probability that he’s right. Thanks!