Interesting! On this topic I generally think in terms of breakthroughs. One breakthrough can lead to a long set of small iterative jumps, as has happened since transformers. If another breakthrough is required before AGI, then these estimates may be off. If no breakthroughs are required, and we can iteratively move towards AGI, then we may approach AGI quite fast indeed. I don’t like the comparison to biological evolution. Biological evolution goes through so many rabbit holes and has odd preconditions. Perhaps if the environment was right, and circumstances were different we could have seen intelligent life quite quickly after the Cambrian.
Interesting! On this topic I generally think in terms of breakthroughs. One breakthrough can lead to a long set of small iterative jumps, as has happened since transformers. If another breakthrough is required before AGI, then these estimates may be off. If no breakthroughs are required, and we can iteratively move towards AGI, then we may approach AGI quite fast indeed. I don’t like the comparison to biological evolution. Biological evolution goes through so many rabbit holes and has odd preconditions. Perhaps if the environment was right, and circumstances were different we could have seen intelligent life quite quickly after the Cambrian.