Possible answer: “No election is decided by a single vote; if it’s that close, it’ll be decided by lawyers.”
Rebuttal: yeah, it’s a little fuzzy, but, without having cranked through the math, I don’t think it matters: my null hypothesis is that my vote shifts the probability distribution for who wins the legal battle in my desired direction, with an effect size around the same as in the naive lawyer-free model.
Possible answer: “No election is decided by a single vote; if it’s that close, it’ll be decided by lawyers.”
Rebuttal: yeah, it’s a little fuzzy, but, without having cranked through the math, I don’t think it matters: my null hypothesis is that my vote shifts the probability distribution for who wins the legal battle in my desired direction, with an effect size around the same as in the naive lawyer-free model.