Possible answer: “You’re doing a causal-decision-theory calculation here (assuming that your vote might swing the election while everything else stays constant); but in reality, we need to break out [functional decision theory or whatever the new hotness is], on account of politicians predicting and “pricing in” your vote as they design their platforms.”
Hmm, yeah, maybe. In which case, the model shouldn’t be “my vote might swing the election,” but instead “my vote will acausally incrementally change candidates’ platforms,” which I don’t have very good models for.
Possible answer: “You’re doing a causal-decision-theory calculation here (assuming that your vote might swing the election while everything else stays constant); but in reality, we need to break out [functional decision theory or whatever the new hotness is], on account of politicians predicting and “pricing in” your vote as they design their platforms.”
Hmm, yeah, maybe. In which case, the model shouldn’t be “my vote might swing the election,” but instead “my vote will acausally incrementally change candidates’ platforms,” which I don’t have very good models for.