This works if they are all independent probabilities. But some of them are clearly not.
I tried to define them to be independent:
[3] … “all my probability guesses are conditional on everything above them not happening”
So my probabilities were supposed to be like:
P(failure1) P(failure2|-failure1) P(failure3|-failure2&-failure1) P(failure4|-failure3&-failure2&-failure1)
In some cases they are probably unrelated. Then we can simplify:
P(society falls apart | nothing goes wrong in freezing you)
can be almost perfectly approximated as
P(society falls apart)
Right, but some of them are clearly not independent. See my example of forms of deaths where they are essentially exclusive.
I tried to define them to be independent:
So my probabilities were supposed to be like:
In some cases they are probably unrelated. Then we can simplify:
can be almost perfectly approximated as
Right, but some of them are clearly not independent. See my example of forms of deaths where they are essentially exclusive.