Belief is pretty unambiguous—being sure of (100% probability, like cogito ergo sum), or a strong trust (not nearly 90% probability is not belief). So it seems we are in agreement, you don’t believe in it, and neither do most less wrong readers. I agree that based on that argument, whether the probability is 10^-1000 or 75%, is still up for debate.
If that’s your definition of belief then it may not be that relevant. If I there’s a game where someone roles a pair of fair six-sided dice and will give me five dollars if I can guess their sum, my best strategy is to guess 7 even though I don’t by your definition believe that 7 will turn up. In this context this becomes a less than helfpul notation.
Also, if this is what you meant, I’m a bit confused by why you brought it up. Many prominent cryonics proponents give estimates well below 90%. So what point were you trying to make?
Belief is pretty unambiguous—being sure of (100% probability, like cogito ergo sum), or a strong trust (not nearly 90% probability is not belief). So it seems we are in agreement, you don’t believe in it, and neither do most less wrong readers. I agree that based on that argument, whether the probability is 10^-1000 or 75%, is still up for debate.
If that’s your definition of belief then it may not be that relevant. If I there’s a game where someone roles a pair of fair six-sided dice and will give me five dollars if I can guess their sum, my best strategy is to guess 7 even though I don’t by your definition believe that 7 will turn up. In this context this becomes a less than helfpul notation.
Also, if this is what you meant, I’m a bit confused by why you brought it up. Many prominent cryonics proponents give estimates well below 90%. So what point were you trying to make?