I’ve just run across this data visualization, with data gathered through polling /r/samplesize (approximately reproducing a 1999 CIA analysis, CIA chart here), showing how people tend to translate terms like ‘highly likely’ into numerical probabilities. I’m showing the pretty joyplot version because it’s so very pretty, but see the source for the more conventional and arguably more readable whisker plots.
I’ve just run across this data visualization, with data gathered through polling /r/samplesize (approximately reproducing a 1999 CIA analysis, CIA chart here), showing how people tend to translate terms like ‘highly likely’ into numerical probabilities. I’m showing the pretty joyplot version because it’s so very pretty, but see the source for the more conventional and arguably more readable whisker plots.