Because lotteries cost more to play than the chance of winning is worth, someone who understands basic probability will not buy lottery tickets.
Whereas as someone who understands advanced probability, particularly the value/utility distinction, might.
The situation you’re describing is similar. If you dismiss beliefs that have no evidence from a reference class of mostly-false beliefs, you’re at a disadvantage in knowing about unlikely-but-true facts that have yet to become mainstream. But you’re also not paying the opportunity cost of trying out many unlikely ideas, most of which don’t pan out. Overall, you’re better off, because you have more time to pursue more promising ways to satisfy your goals.
So long as you can put a ceiling on possible benefits.
Whereas as someone who understands advanced probability, particularly the value/utility distinction, might.
So long as you can put a ceiling on possible benefits.