It quite easy to make wrong arguments in favor of positions that are true. If you think that an argument is good just because you think it’s conclusion is true it’s time to pause and reflect and look at a situation where the same structure of the argument would lead to a conclusion that’s false.
Even if men and woman are on average equally qualified that doesn’t mean that a specific subset is. For a hiring manager it’s not important whether there’s causation. Correlation in the data set is enough.
If you think that an argument is good just because you think its conclusion is true [...]
I agree, that’s a very bad sign. On the other hand, there’s nothing very alarming about thinking an argument is more persuasive when you agree with its premises. And often the premises and the conclusions are related to one another. That seems to me to be exactly the situation here.
Premise: There pretty clearly isn’t an enormous cognitive difference between men and women that makes women much less competent at brainwork, so much less competent that a moderate amount of information about a person’s abilities leaves a lot of male-female difference un-screened-off.
Argument: If indeed there isn’t, then the best explanation of findings of the sort we’ve been discussing is prejudice in favour of men and against women that has substantial impact on hiring.
Conclusion: There probably is such prejudice, and it probably leads (among other things) to underrepresentation of women in many brainwork-heavy jobs.
(Note: the premise, the argument, and the conclusion are all sketchy approximations. Filling in all the details would make the above maybe 20x longer than it is.)
I find the argument somewhat persuasive. This is partly because I find the premise plausible; some people might not (e.g., because the evidence they think they have regarding the relative abilities of men and women differs from the evidence I think I have); those people will find it less persuasive.
The premise in question is not the conclusion of the argument. It is not equivalent to the conclusion of the argument. It neither implies nor is implied by the conclusion of the argument. It is, for sure, somewhat related to the conclusion—e.g., by the fact that they are premise and conclusion of a short and simple argument—and doubtless there is a correlation between believing one and believing the other. I do not find this sufficient reason to think that finding the argument more credible if one accepts the premise is any sort of cognitive error.
Perhaps I am misunderstanding your argument somehow. I confess I don’t find it perfectly clear. Would you like to make it more explicit what error you think I am committing and why you think that?
Even if men and women are on average equally qualified that doesn’t mean that a specific subset is.
I agree and am not aware of having said or implied otherwise. One of the many modifications that would be needed to turn the argument-sketch above into something unambiguous and quantitative would be to replace “between men and women” with “between men applying for lab manager posts and women applying for lab manager posts”. If you think this makes an actual difference in here, I’d be interested to see the details.
For a hiring manager it’s not important whether there’s causation. Correlation in the data set is enough.
Depends on the details, of course, but mostly yes. Once again, though, I am having trouble working out what I’ve said that suggests I think otherwise.
It quite easy to make wrong arguments in favor of positions that are true. If you think that an argument is good just because you think it’s conclusion is true it’s time to pause and reflect and look at a situation where the same structure of the argument would lead to a conclusion that’s false.
Even if men and woman are on average equally qualified that doesn’t mean that a specific subset is. For a hiring manager it’s not important whether there’s causation. Correlation in the data set is enough.
I agree, that’s a very bad sign. On the other hand, there’s nothing very alarming about thinking an argument is more persuasive when you agree with its premises. And often the premises and the conclusions are related to one another. That seems to me to be exactly the situation here.
Premise: There pretty clearly isn’t an enormous cognitive difference between men and women that makes women much less competent at brainwork, so much less competent that a moderate amount of information about a person’s abilities leaves a lot of male-female difference un-screened-off.
Argument: If indeed there isn’t, then the best explanation of findings of the sort we’ve been discussing is prejudice in favour of men and against women that has substantial impact on hiring.
Conclusion: There probably is such prejudice, and it probably leads (among other things) to underrepresentation of women in many brainwork-heavy jobs.
(Note: the premise, the argument, and the conclusion are all sketchy approximations. Filling in all the details would make the above maybe 20x longer than it is.)
I find the argument somewhat persuasive. This is partly because I find the premise plausible; some people might not (e.g., because the evidence they think they have regarding the relative abilities of men and women differs from the evidence I think I have); those people will find it less persuasive.
The premise in question is not the conclusion of the argument. It is not equivalent to the conclusion of the argument. It neither implies nor is implied by the conclusion of the argument. It is, for sure, somewhat related to the conclusion—e.g., by the fact that they are premise and conclusion of a short and simple argument—and doubtless there is a correlation between believing one and believing the other. I do not find this sufficient reason to think that finding the argument more credible if one accepts the premise is any sort of cognitive error.
Perhaps I am misunderstanding your argument somehow. I confess I don’t find it perfectly clear. Would you like to make it more explicit what error you think I am committing and why you think that?
I agree and am not aware of having said or implied otherwise. One of the many modifications that would be needed to turn the argument-sketch above into something unambiguous and quantitative would be to replace “between men and women” with “between men applying for lab manager posts and women applying for lab manager posts”. If you think this makes an actual difference in here, I’d be interested to see the details.
Depends on the details, of course, but mostly yes. Once again, though, I am having trouble working out what I’ve said that suggests I think otherwise.