For what it’s worth I settled on the Ajeya report aggressive distribution as a reasonable prior after taking a quick skim of the report and then eyeballing the various distributions to see which one felt the most right to me—not a super rigorous process. The best guess timeline feels definitely too slow to me. The biggest reason why my timeline estimate isn’t shorter is essentially correction for planning fallacy.
For what it’s worth I settled on the Ajeya report aggressive distribution as a reasonable prior after taking a quick skim of the report and then eyeballing the various distributions to see which one felt the most right to me—not a super rigorous process. The best guess timeline feels definitely too slow to me. The biggest reason why my timeline estimate isn’t shorter is essentially correction for planning fallacy.