I have high confidence that the dominance of drones in conflicts between technologically-sophisticated powers is (barring world peace and civilizational collapse) inevitable. This is a public, registered prediction.
It’s not just that drones will be a decisive factor, that has already been the case with air power for >30 years. What’s terrifying to me is that drone warfare intrinsically favors the attacker—drones can’t defend you against drones, you can only retaliate, like with nuclear weapons. Unlike nuclear weapons, the threshold for using them in war is very, very low, as is the technological barrier to entry.
I have high confidence that the dominance of drones in conflicts between technologically-sophisticated powers is (barring world peace and civilizational collapse) inevitable. This is a public, registered prediction.
It’s not just that drones will be a decisive factor, that has already been the case with air power for >30 years. What’s terrifying to me is that drone warfare intrinsically favors the attacker—drones can’t defend you against drones, you can only retaliate, like with nuclear weapons. Unlike nuclear weapons, the threshold for using them in war is very, very low, as is the technological barrier to entry.