In turn, you raise a reasonable question about why this hypothesis should even be on the radar (i.e. am I maybe privileging a hypothesis)? However, this is a less-than-2-bit claim. Given the topic matter, either there’s a bias in one direction, or in the other, or there’s no bias. Focusing on any one of those doesn’t require a lot of evidence to justify to begin with, so again it’s a low standard to meet.
I’m not sure that settles it....
“There is an object one foot across in the asteroid belt composed entirely of chocolate cake” is either true or it isn’t—in the sense you used it, that’s only a one-bit claim. So with “this murder was committed by Mortimer Q. Snodgrass, who lives at 128 Ordinary Ln.”
It may be relevant that it takes a lot more than two bits to specify your hypothesis in the first place.
In the “Mortimer Q. Snodgrass” example, Snodgrass is not one
of three or so people that the evidence has not ruled out,
he is one of a vast multitude of people that the evidence
has not ruled out.
Of the three (mutually exclusive, jointly exhaustive)
hypotheses listed by Silas, which do you think corresponds
in likelihood to “someone other than Snodgrass did it”? Or
do you dispute that those form a worthwhile trio of
hypotheses?
Or do you dispute that those form a worthwhile trio of hypotheses?
Indeed, I’m skeptical that there are a ‘male side’ and ‘female side’ to this issue, and that it’s worthwhile to divide it up along gender lines, and that the two cases Silas refers to are analogous to the extent that it would be meaningful to talk about a ‘bias’ towards one as compared to the other. But I’m convinced there’s a high enough probability that my skepticism is unwarranted that I shouldn’t bug people about it at the moment.
I’m familiar with the concept, Thom. Take a guess at why I used this phrasing:
Given the topic matter, either there’s a bias in one direction, or in the other, or there’s no bias
GIven that we already have enough evidence to be discussing the matter, there are only a few options left.
So yes, if we had enough evidence to be considering MQS as the murderer, it would not require additional evidence to justify considering the hypotheses “MQS guilty” and “MQS innocent”.
Perhaps I should have instead disputed whether the ‘topic matter’ was ‘given’. But we’ve already established that my intuitions regarding gender / society / taboo / PUA are vastly different from yours, and that I seem to be atypical, so perhaps my skepticism is unimportant.
Perhaps I should have instead disputed whether the ‘topic matter’ was ‘given’.
Yes, that would have made your point responsive, and have prevented you from falsely accusing me of a basic error. Please exercise caution when someone’s comment initially appears to you to be rather stupid—you may need to look at the context some more.
Wouldn’t you need a supporting example or something, though?
Seriously—let it go. You entered a thread without having read the surrounding discussion closely enough. No big deal, we all goof sometimes. We don’t all try to make it look noble, though.
My impression is that by continuing to reply but dropping the posturing required to maintain decorum and expressing frustration rather than fully engaging in the business of clever re-framing you allow him to look noble at your expense. The unfortunate thing is that the actions required to look noble are usually at odds with actually being noble. To gain social reward, either don’t engage (taking your initial positive impression) or ruthlessly battle for the moral high ground using (and bending) whatever tactics of debate are allowed by your tribe.
I’m not sure that settles it....
“There is an object one foot across in the asteroid belt composed entirely of chocolate cake” is either true or it isn’t—in the sense you used it, that’s only a one-bit claim. So with “this murder was committed by Mortimer Q. Snodgrass, who lives at 128 Ordinary Ln.”
It may be relevant that it takes a lot more than two bits to specify your hypothesis in the first place.
In the “Mortimer Q. Snodgrass” example, Snodgrass is not one of three or so people that the evidence has not ruled out, he is one of a vast multitude of people that the evidence has not ruled out.
Of the three (mutually exclusive, jointly exhaustive) hypotheses listed by Silas, which do you think corresponds in likelihood to “someone other than Snodgrass did it”? Or do you dispute that those form a worthwhile trio of hypotheses?
Indeed, I’m skeptical that there are a ‘male side’ and ‘female side’ to this issue, and that it’s worthwhile to divide it up along gender lines, and that the two cases Silas refers to are analogous to the extent that it would be meaningful to talk about a ‘bias’ towards one as compared to the other. But I’m convinced there’s a high enough probability that my skepticism is unwarranted that I shouldn’t bug people about it at the moment.
I’m familiar with the concept, Thom. Take a guess at why I used this phrasing:
GIven that we already have enough evidence to be discussing the matter, there are only a few options left.
So yes, if we had enough evidence to be considering MQS as the murderer, it would not require additional evidence to justify considering the hypotheses “MQS guilty” and “MQS innocent”.
Perhaps I should have instead disputed whether the ‘topic matter’ was ‘given’. But we’ve already established that my intuitions regarding gender / society / taboo / PUA are vastly different from yours, and that I seem to be atypical, so perhaps my skepticism is unimportant.
ETR: Okay, let me tone that reply down.
Yes, that would have made your point responsive, and have prevented you from falsely accusing me of a basic error. Please exercise caution when someone’s comment initially appears to you to be rather stupid—you may need to look at the context some more.
Indeed.
I feel I should be pointing out some sort of humorous irony here, but I’m afraid I’m not that clever.
Wouldn’t you need a supporting example or something, though?
Seriously—let it go. You entered a thread without having read the surrounding discussion closely enough. No big deal, we all goof sometimes. We don’t all try to make it look noble, though.
My impression is that by continuing to reply but dropping the posturing required to maintain decorum and expressing frustration rather than fully engaging in the business of clever re-framing you allow him to look noble at your expense. The unfortunate thing is that the actions required to look noble are usually at odds with actually being noble. To gain social reward, either don’t engage (taking your initial positive impression) or ruthlessly battle for the moral high ground using (and bending) whatever tactics of debate are allowed by your tribe.