Making a bet is like trying to write a computer program that runs perfectly the first time you run it. One reason I don’t bet is that I’m no good at writing bets without loopholes (where a loophole is something that leads to the bet being lost in a scenario which doesn’t falsify the proposition that the bet is meant to be about.)
We also don’t know people’s financial situations, so it’s hard to tell whether someone’s willingness to bet is affected by being in a good financial situation. For that matter, it’s hard to distinguish between justified confidence and foolhardiness.
Normies don’t bet like this, and there are reasons for it.
Manifold.markets is play-money only, no real money required. And users can settle the markets they make themselves, so if you make the market you don’t have to worry about loopholes (though you should communicate as clearly as possible so people aren’t confused about your decisions).
If by ‘Normies’ you mean normal internet users, I highly doubt that’s a concern. Since approximately 0% of posts would be written by such, nor would they want to participate on LW to any significant degree.
Making a bet is like trying to write a computer program that runs perfectly the first time you run it. One reason I don’t bet is that I’m no good at writing bets without loopholes (where a loophole is something that leads to the bet being lost in a scenario which doesn’t falsify the proposition that the bet is meant to be about.)
We also don’t know people’s financial situations, so it’s hard to tell whether someone’s willingness to bet is affected by being in a good financial situation. For that matter, it’s hard to distinguish between justified confidence and foolhardiness.
Normies don’t bet like this, and there are reasons for it.
Manifold.markets is play-money only, no real money required. And users can settle the markets they make themselves, so if you make the market you don’t have to worry about loopholes (though you should communicate as clearly as possible so people aren’t confused about your decisions).
If by ‘Normies’ you mean normal internet users, I highly doubt that’s a concern. Since approximately 0% of posts would be written by such, nor would they want to participate on LW to any significant degree.
The point is not that they are here, but that they have reasons why they don’t bet other than just arbitrariness, and these reasons may still apply.