Does thinking that A is 45% likely mean that you think the negation of A is 5% likely, or 55% likely? Don’t answer that; the negation is 55% likely.
But we can imagine making a judgment about someone’s personality. One human person accepts MBTI’s framework that thinking and feeling are mutually exclusive personalities, so when they write that someone has a 55% chance of being a thinker type, they make an implicit not-tracked judgment that they have an almost 45% chance of being a feeler type AND not a thinker, but a rational Bayesian is not so silly of course; being a feeler and/or a thinker are two independent questions, buddy.
The models in a person’s mind are predictable from the estimate on his paper, and while his estimate may be true, the models the predictions stem from may be deeply flawed.
By the logic of personality taxonomy and worldly relations, “the negation of A” has many connotations.
Maybe the trouble is with the words ‘negation’, ‘opposite’, and ‘falsehood’ instead of using the word ‘absence’. Presence of falsehood evidence is not the same as absence of truth evidence, even if absence of truth evidence is one kind of weak falsehood evidence to be present.
Does thinking that A is 45% likely mean that you think the negation of A is 5% likely, or 55% likely? Don’t answer that; the negation is 55% likely.
But we can imagine making a judgment about someone’s personality. One human person accepts MBTI’s framework that thinking and feeling are mutually exclusive personalities, so when they write that someone has a 55% chance of being a thinker type, they make an implicit not-tracked judgment that they have an almost 45% chance of being a feeler type AND not a thinker, but a rational Bayesian is not so silly of course; being a feeler and/or a thinker are two independent questions, buddy.
The models in a person’s mind are predictable from the estimate on his paper, and while his estimate may be true, the models the predictions stem from may be deeply flawed.
By the logic of personality taxonomy and worldly relations, “the negation of A” has many connotations.
Maybe the trouble is with the words ‘negation’, ‘opposite’, and ‘falsehood’ instead of using the word ‘absence’. Presence of falsehood evidence is not the same as absence of truth evidence, even if absence of truth evidence is one kind of weak falsehood evidence to be present.