This deck has around a 70% probability of beating the rival. I used a LightGBM booster trained on all the data. The out-of-sample accuracy before dumping all the data in was an AUC of 0.66, but the model is well-calibrated, so I’m confident in the ~70% probability.
My deck against the rival is:
Alessin_Adamant_Angel_Deck_A_Count: 3
Murderous_Minotaur_Deck_A_Count: 1
Patchy_Pirate_Deck_A_Count: 6
Sword_of_Shadows_Deck_A_Count: 2
This deck has around a 70% probability of beating the rival. I used a LightGBM booster trained on all the data. The out-of-sample accuracy before dumping all the data in was an AUC of 0.66, but the model is well-calibrated, so I’m confident in the ~70% probability.