a 10% probability of having a sexual orientation for a gender with whom I’m forbidden from having sex with.
Wikipedia indicates that this number is substantially too high. Random representative samples seem to give results of a few percent or less, with higher figures coming from non-representative samples such as prisons, urban areas which concentrate the gay population from surrounding regions, and unscientific polls by condom manufacturers.
I had also underestimated the probability of fatal STDs by an order of magnitude: AIDS alone caused 4.87% of all deaths in 2002. (OTOH, the fact that there are quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
AIDS in Africa is not spread by homosexuals, but by foreign aid: More precisely, by needle reuse in health facilities supported by foreign aid.
In the west, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of God disease. In Africa, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of progressivism disease.
The more AIDS patients you have, the more money you get, so no incentive to sterilize needles. And everyone feels a pleasant glow of progressive holiness and piety at the sight of non homosexuals and non drug users getting AIDS, so no one really wants to halt this display of holiness and sacredness.
The typical African AIDS victim is the faithful wife of a faithful husband who catches the disease because she attends a foreign aid funded clinic while pregnant. That will teach them to be married and faithful.
An article in New Scientist from a decade ago talking about a “controversial new analysis,” without any follow-up in subsequent years is a pretty weak source. Here is Robin Hanson’s post, arguing for the same claim with more recent and better sources, although still unconvincing.
Wikipedia indicates that this number is substantially too high. Random representative samples seem to give results of a few percent or less, with higher figures coming from non-representative samples such as prisons, urban areas which concentrate the gay population from surrounding regions, and unscientific polls by condom manufacturers.
I had also underestimated the probability of fatal STDs by an order of magnitude: AIDS alone caused 4.87% of all deaths in 2002. (OTOH, the fact that there are quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
AIDS in Africa is not spread by homosexuals, but by foreign aid: More precisely, by needle reuse in health facilities supported by foreign aid.
In the west, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of God disease. In Africa, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of progressivism disease.
The more AIDS patients you have, the more money you get, so no incentive to sterilize needles. And everyone feels a pleasant glow of progressive holiness and piety at the sight of non homosexuals and non drug users getting AIDS, so no one really wants to halt this display of holiness and sacredness.
The typical African AIDS victim is the faithful wife of a faithful husband who catches the disease because she attends a foreign aid funded clinic while pregnant. That will teach them to be married and faithful.
An article in New Scientist from a decade ago talking about a “controversial new analysis,” without any follow-up in subsequent years is a pretty weak source. Here is Robin Hanson’s post, arguing for the same claim with more recent and better sources, although still unconvincing.