(It also seems likely that gay liberation contributed to the AIDS epidemic- but the primary comparison there is to Cuba, where those with AIDS were quarantined. Unsurprisingly, quarantine reduces transmission rates.)
What about Africa? Sure, there are all sorts of problems making that comparison, but it shows that anti-gay attitudes aren’t particularly protective. Also, of course, attitudes were much more conservative in late-15th and 16th century Europe, but syphilis did pretty well. Looking at the rates of HIV infection by state, Cook’s PVI only accounts for about 6% of the variance, about the same as urban density (the two are themselves somewhat more correlated). If we take PVI as a rough proxy for conservative attitudes about sexuality, it seems like conservatism isn’t particularly protective.
That’s probably because illiberal attitudes towards homosexuality probably don’t reduce homosexual sex all that much. They just drive it underground. That makes epidemics harder to trace and harder to stop. Also, these attitudes tend to preclude education about condoms and STDs (since it’s hard to teach “don’t do this but if you do, be safe”). Sex ed actually does seem to increase condom use, and thus reduce the spread of HIV.
What about Africa? Sure, there are all sorts of problems making that comparison, but it shows that anti-gay attitudes aren’t particularly protective. Also, of course, attitudes were much more conservative in late-15th and 16th century Europe, but syphilis did pretty well. Looking at the rates of HIV infection by state, Cook’s PVI only accounts for about 6% of the variance, about the same as urban density (the two are themselves somewhat more correlated). If we take PVI as a rough proxy for conservative attitudes about sexuality, it seems like conservatism isn’t particularly protective.
That’s probably because illiberal attitudes towards homosexuality probably don’t reduce homosexual sex all that much. They just drive it underground. That makes epidemics harder to trace and harder to stop. Also, these attitudes tend to preclude education about condoms and STDs (since it’s hard to teach “don’t do this but if you do, be safe”). Sex ed actually does seem to increase condom use, and thus reduce the spread of HIV.