Well, yes. As is the mere presence of the idea of $2 for $1 terrible evidence that the black box will do any such thing.
Eliezer speaks in the Twelve Virtues of letting oneself be as light as a leaf, blown unresistingly by the wind of evidence, but evidence of this sort is on the level of the individual molecules and Brownian motion of that leaf.
.… purple giraffes are evidence of the blackness of crows, though. Just, really really terrible evidence.
Well, yes. As is the mere presence of the idea of $2 for $1 terrible evidence that the black box will do any such thing.
Eliezer speaks in the Twelve Virtues of letting oneself be as light as a leaf, blown unresistingly by the wind of evidence, but evidence of this sort is on the level of the individual molecules and Brownian motion of that leaf.
It depends on your priors