Please tell me that isn’t the sort of thing you mean.
Your wish is my command! No, that isn’t the sort of thing I meant.
I meant this quite literally and without a preference for the Magenta party or the Cyan party. Given two alternatives and the way they are presented in the popular media, it is often (but not always) possible to predict the preferences of the low-IQ crowd. The end.
That issue is different from political tribalism.
Having said that, I haven’t run any reasonably controlled experiments so at this point it’s just my opinion without data to support it.
Given two alternatives and the way they are presented in the popular media, it is often (but not always) possible to predict the preferences of the low-IQ crowd.
This is the exact opposite of what I’ve observed in various true-lift models I’ve done for various purposes. Lower IQ tends to correlate more with lower-informedness, and low information voters are highly susceptible to noise, which makes predicting them a pain. Things like the order of the names on the ballot can have an effect on their vote.
Generally, higher information voters are much easier to predict, especially if you have any indications of their voting history.
The whole well-established and rather large field of marketing is preoccupied with predicting and manipulating the preferences of people.
There doesn’t seem to be much difference between persuading people to buy a particular brand of shampoo and persuading people to support a particular political issue (or vote for a particular candidate).
Your wish is my command! No, that isn’t the sort of thing I meant.
I meant this quite literally and without a preference for the Magenta party or the Cyan party. Given two alternatives and the way they are presented in the popular media, it is often (but not always) possible to predict the preferences of the low-IQ crowd. The end.
That issue is different from political tribalism.
Having said that, I haven’t run any reasonably controlled experiments so at this point it’s just my opinion without data to support it.
This is the exact opposite of what I’ve observed in various true-lift models I’ve done for various purposes. Lower IQ tends to correlate more with lower-informedness, and low information voters are highly susceptible to noise, which makes predicting them a pain. Things like the order of the names on the ballot can have an effect on their vote.
Generally, higher information voters are much easier to predict, especially if you have any indications of their voting history.
Depressing but plausible :(
I suspect “the way they are presented in the popular media” is crafted with that in mind.
The whole well-established and rather large field of marketing is preoccupied with predicting and manipulating the preferences of people.
There doesn’t seem to be much difference between persuading people to buy a particular brand of shampoo and persuading people to support a particular political issue (or vote for a particular candidate).