I’m still comfortable with the hypothesis of it being behind us, having previously considered habitable-zone planets around Sun-like stars highly probable.
The two big filters I tend to favor are development/survival of multicellular life and evolution of tool-using intelligence. Multicellular life is such a recent froth on Earth and such a small part of the biosphere that I’m satisfied with it being highly improbable. And intelligence? High animal intelligence is a resource hog that makes the species much more vulnerable to environmental disruptions. I think it’s unlikely to simultaneously get paired with tool-using capability and wind up a feature that gets sexually selected far beyond its advantages to survival all the way to true sapience.
First, yes, the unit of selection is of course the individual. But a species-wide feature that causes each individual’s chance of survival and propagation to go down does, in fact, imperil the survival of the species when it is selected against in every individual’s case. When every individual dies, so does the species; similarly, if merely enough individuals die that there’s a genetic bottleneck, the species also risks extinction because of inbreeding-related unfitness of individuals. Next time try actually thinking through what is being said, instead of partial-pattern-matching in an effort to score points.
And yes, runaway selection pressure in general happens a lot. Now, how often does it happen specifically on the characteristic of intelligence, instead of all the other possible features it could happen on? Looking at the only paleontological record we have available, it seems to be awfully rare.
First, yes, the unit of selection is of course the individual.
I’d argue it’s the gene.
But a species-wide feature that causes each individual’s chance of survival and propagation to go down does, in fact, imperil the survival of the species when it is selected against in every individual’s case. When every individual dies, so does the species; similarly, if merely enough individuals die that there’s a genetic bottleneck, the species also risks extinction because of inbreeding-related unfitness of individuals.
To the extent that this works against runaway selection pressure for intelligence, it also works against runaway selection pressure in general, which as you say, still happens a lot.
Next time try actually thinking through what is being said, instead of partial-pattern-matching in an effort to score points.
Please tell me why you think I was doing this, if you’ve good reason for not assuming good faith then I’ll try to avoid giving this impression in future.
And yes, runaway selection pressure in general happens a lot. Now, how often does it happen specifically on the characteristic of intelligence, instead of all the other possible features it could happen on? Looking at the only paleontological record we have available, it seems to be awfully rare.
Fair point. I’m not sure if they’d count as runaway selection pressure, but aren’t there lots of examples for animal-level equivalents of social intelligence? If so, then that counts as it looks like that’s the main reason we got smart.
Fair enough. The point is, nothing I said depended on the premise that the species as the unit of selection, it was merely stating the effect that selection (on whatever unit you like) had on the species. These are distinct concepts. Nothing I said was dependent on the erroneous idea of the species as the unit of selection.
The most charitable interpretation of your “cough” link was that you had read my statement, saw I wasn’t making the mistake addressed in your link, but thought I should have made a big verbose show of avoiding the mistake, and thought the appropriate way to say that was the word “cough”. This did not strike me as very probable.
A more probable (in my view) interpretation was that you saw something that looked like the error in the link, and without analyzing whether the error was actually being made, decided to point out I did something that looked like an error. That’s got several possible interpretations itself, of course. I likely shouldn’t have assumed that you were trying to score points; it is, on reflection more likely you were trying to alert me to a possible error that you simply didn’t spend the time to analyze.
I apologize for my hasty imputation of bad faith, but suggest a more verbose message than “cough” would have
To the extent that this works against runaway selection pressure for intelligence, it also works against runaway selection pressure in general
Ah, I wasn’t addressing runaway selection pressure there, I was addressing the survival value of high animal intelligence. There is a tendency among people (for example, the participants in the 1961 Green Bank meeting where the Drake Equation was first introduced) to evaluate higher intelligence as automatically translating to higher chances of survival, and thus set the fi term in the Drake Equation to 1, on the assumption all life evolves toward intelligence. But high animal (sub-sapient) intelligence, like any other adaptation, is not inherently pro-survival, and so does not monotonically increase. That’s fairly basic evolutionary biology, of course, but between the popular notion of the chain of being and the fact that Drake and his colleagues made the error, I’ve developed a reflex of addressing the mistake in discussions of the Fermi Paradox.
Hmm. Looking back, I was very brief and dense in what I wrote, which makes it difficult to comprehend. I know I’m supposed to say what I’m going to say, say it, than say what I said to maximize comprehension, but I find in the event that I am annoyed at the time it takes and bored by the repetition involved. So I skimped on the effort to communicate effectively, and then when I wasn’t understood, I got angry instead of being sensible.
So I again apologize for being short with you. It was my error.
I’m not sure if they’d count as runaway selection pressure, but aren’t there lots of examples for animal-level equivalents of social intelligence? If so, then that counts as it looks like that’s the main reason we got smart.
I tend to evaluate the lots of examples as evidence that it doesn’t likely lead to runaway selection for intelligence, since it so rarely seems to. It could, of course, instead be understood as there being lots of opportunities for social behavior to cause a runaway selection for intelligence, and so it is almost inevitable that social behavior will eventually do so.
Hmm. I really want some other planets to look at, this one isn’t a large enough sample size.
Your point wasn’t dependent on it so I didn’t want to go verbose & waste the reader’s time when they’ve heard those arguments before. My first thought was Eliezer’s ERROR: Postulation of group selection detected but I thought a subtle cough would be kinder. Oh well.
There is a tendency...to evaluate higher intelligence as automatically translating to higher chances of survival...assumption all life evolves toward intelligence. But high animal (sub-sapient) intelligence...is not inherently pro-survival.
Ah. Yeah, that wasn’t where I was arguing from. I agree with you about this. Do many people (who should know better) still believe this nowadays?
I tend to evaluate the lots of examples as evidence that it doesn’t likely lead to runaway selection for intelligence, since it so rarely seems to. It could, of course, instead be understood as there being lots of opportunities for social behavior to cause a runaway selection for intelligence, and so it is almost inevitable that social behavior will eventually do so.
Maybe not inevitable, but I really doubt it’s hard enough to be a Great Filter.
Hasn’t Multicellularity evolved independently many times on Earth?
Well, I started to cache-dump on colonies versus multicellular organisms, but when I got to the bit on the origin of mutlicellular plants/animals/fungi, I noticed I had a lot of what sure looks like special pleading. And then I noticed myself “rationalizing” the arguments instead of engaging them, because of my emotional dislike of the idea that a Great Filter might be in the future instead of safely in the past.
I am currently raising the probability of a strong filter still in our future on the basis of having one of my two strong past filters seriously weakened. I still have the desire to argue that plant/animal/fungi multicellularity is single ancestral cause (either a single evolution with branches that went back to unicellular life, or “parallel” evolution from a single origin instead of “independent” evolution), but I’m finding things like, for example, “oxygen levels finally got high enough to efficiently support multicellular life” coming in with higher probability.
Recently as I learned more about the social context for development of intelligence I updated further in favor of a future filter. I couldn’t understand why it would be useful enough to get a little more intelligent than being able to wear an animal skin for warmth and club a seal with a rock for food. But the reproductive benefits of going up the pecking order of the clan by way of clever plots seems pretty well supported and intuitively likely once I’d heard of it.
Rare, sure. Rare enough to be a plausible candidate for a great filter? Not at all. Anything that independently evolved multiple times on Earth is likely to evolve in any similarly populated planet.
Yes, but it’s the conjunction with intelligence that I proposed as the filter, not the tool use on its own.
Even if you get a runaway sexual selection for intelligence, the species has to have some tool-manipulation ability for it to result in technology. A primate that gets human intelligence through runaway sexual selection is in good position to develop a technological civilization that can communicate or colonize. A corvid that gets human intelligence might manage something, or it might be stuck in a stone age forever because of inferior manipulators and insufficient body strength. A human-intelligence baleen whale, I don’t see how they can possibly get to technology from where they are.
I’m still comfortable with the hypothesis of it being behind us, having previously considered habitable-zone planets around Sun-like stars highly probable.
The two big filters I tend to favor are development/survival of multicellular life and evolution of tool-using intelligence. Multicellular life is such a recent froth on Earth and such a small part of the biosphere that I’m satisfied with it being highly improbable. And intelligence? High animal intelligence is a resource hog that makes the species much more vulnerable to environmental disruptions. I think it’s unlikely to simultaneously get paired with tool-using capability and wind up a feature that gets sexually selected far beyond its advantages to survival all the way to true sapience.
cough
This sort of runaway selection pressure happens a lot in nature (eg. peacocks).
First, yes, the unit of selection is of course the individual. But a species-wide feature that causes each individual’s chance of survival and propagation to go down does, in fact, imperil the survival of the species when it is selected against in every individual’s case. When every individual dies, so does the species; similarly, if merely enough individuals die that there’s a genetic bottleneck, the species also risks extinction because of inbreeding-related unfitness of individuals. Next time try actually thinking through what is being said, instead of partial-pattern-matching in an effort to score points.
And yes, runaway selection pressure in general happens a lot. Now, how often does it happen specifically on the characteristic of intelligence, instead of all the other possible features it could happen on? Looking at the only paleontological record we have available, it seems to be awfully rare.
I’d argue it’s the gene.
To the extent that this works against runaway selection pressure for intelligence, it also works against runaway selection pressure in general, which as you say, still happens a lot.
Please tell me why you think I was doing this, if you’ve good reason for not assuming good faith then I’ll try to avoid giving this impression in future.
Fair point. I’m not sure if they’d count as runaway selection pressure, but aren’t there lots of examples for animal-level equivalents of social intelligence? If so, then that counts as it looks like that’s the main reason we got smart.
Fair enough. The point is, nothing I said depended on the premise that the species as the unit of selection, it was merely stating the effect that selection (on whatever unit you like) had on the species. These are distinct concepts. Nothing I said was dependent on the erroneous idea of the species as the unit of selection.
The most charitable interpretation of your “cough” link was that you had read my statement, saw I wasn’t making the mistake addressed in your link, but thought I should have made a big verbose show of avoiding the mistake, and thought the appropriate way to say that was the word “cough”. This did not strike me as very probable.
A more probable (in my view) interpretation was that you saw something that looked like the error in the link, and without analyzing whether the error was actually being made, decided to point out I did something that looked like an error. That’s got several possible interpretations itself, of course. I likely shouldn’t have assumed that you were trying to score points; it is, on reflection more likely you were trying to alert me to a possible error that you simply didn’t spend the time to analyze.
I apologize for my hasty imputation of bad faith, but suggest a more verbose message than “cough” would have
Ah, I wasn’t addressing runaway selection pressure there, I was addressing the survival value of high animal intelligence. There is a tendency among people (for example, the participants in the 1961 Green Bank meeting where the Drake Equation was first introduced) to evaluate higher intelligence as automatically translating to higher chances of survival, and thus set the fi term in the Drake Equation to 1, on the assumption all life evolves toward intelligence. But high animal (sub-sapient) intelligence, like any other adaptation, is not inherently pro-survival, and so does not monotonically increase. That’s fairly basic evolutionary biology, of course, but between the popular notion of the chain of being and the fact that Drake and his colleagues made the error, I’ve developed a reflex of addressing the mistake in discussions of the Fermi Paradox.
Hmm. Looking back, I was very brief and dense in what I wrote, which makes it difficult to comprehend. I know I’m supposed to say what I’m going to say, say it, than say what I said to maximize comprehension, but I find in the event that I am annoyed at the time it takes and bored by the repetition involved. So I skimped on the effort to communicate effectively, and then when I wasn’t understood, I got angry instead of being sensible.
So I again apologize for being short with you. It was my error.
I tend to evaluate the lots of examples as evidence that it doesn’t likely lead to runaway selection for intelligence, since it so rarely seems to. It could, of course, instead be understood as there being lots of opportunities for social behavior to cause a runaway selection for intelligence, and so it is almost inevitable that social behavior will eventually do so.
Hmm. I really want some other planets to look at, this one isn’t a large enough sample size.
Your point wasn’t dependent on it so I didn’t want to go verbose & waste the reader’s time when they’ve heard those arguments before. My first thought was Eliezer’s ERROR: Postulation of group selection detected but I thought a subtle cough would be kinder. Oh well.
Ah. Yeah, that wasn’t where I was arguing from. I agree with you about this. Do many people (who should know better) still believe this nowadays?
Maybe not inevitable, but I really doubt it’s hard enough to be a Great Filter.
Hasn’t Multicellularity evolved independently many times on Earth?
It, or something leading up to it.
Well, I started to cache-dump on colonies versus multicellular organisms, but when I got to the bit on the origin of mutlicellular plants/animals/fungi, I noticed I had a lot of what sure looks like special pleading. And then I noticed myself “rationalizing” the arguments instead of engaging them, because of my emotional dislike of the idea that a Great Filter might be in the future instead of safely in the past.
I am currently raising the probability of a strong filter still in our future on the basis of having one of my two strong past filters seriously weakened. I still have the desire to argue that plant/animal/fungi multicellularity is single ancestral cause (either a single evolution with branches that went back to unicellular life, or “parallel” evolution from a single origin instead of “independent” evolution), but I’m finding things like, for example, “oxygen levels finally got high enough to efficiently support multicellular life” coming in with higher probability.
Recently as I learned more about the social context for development of intelligence I updated further in favor of a future filter. I couldn’t understand why it would be useful enough to get a little more intelligent than being able to wear an animal skin for warmth and club a seal with a rock for food. But the reproductive benefits of going up the pecking order of the clan by way of clever plots seems pretty well supported and intuitively likely once I’d heard of it.
Tool use is… quite common.
I would suggest, against the number of species that actually exist, tool use is actually fairly rare.
Rare, sure. Rare enough to be a plausible candidate for a great filter? Not at all. Anything that independently evolved multiple times on Earth is likely to evolve in any similarly populated planet.
Yes, but it’s the conjunction with intelligence that I proposed as the filter, not the tool use on its own.
Even if you get a runaway sexual selection for intelligence, the species has to have some tool-manipulation ability for it to result in technology. A primate that gets human intelligence through runaway sexual selection is in good position to develop a technological civilization that can communicate or colonize. A corvid that gets human intelligence might manage something, or it might be stuck in a stone age forever because of inferior manipulators and insufficient body strength. A human-intelligence baleen whale, I don’t see how they can possibly get to technology from where they are.