If there is nothing making the development and survival of intelligent tool-using life intrinsically improbable, the odds are at least billions to one against Earth being first in our light cone. Any hypothetical Great Filter that has odds of mere millions-to-one against being true is a substantially superior hypothesis to “we just happened to be first”.
That really doesn’t work.
If there is nothing making the development and survival of intelligent tool-using life intrinsically improbable, the odds are at least billions to one against Earth being first in our light cone. Any hypothetical Great Filter that has odds of mere millions-to-one against being true is a substantially superior hypothesis to “we just happened to be first”.