“Experts” counter-signal to separate themselves from the masses by saying “no need to panic”.
I think the main reason is that the social dynamic is probably favorable to them in the longrun. I worry that there is a higher social risk to being alarmist than being calm. Let me try to illustrate one scenario:
My current estimate is that there is only 15 − 20% probability of a global disaster (>50 million deaths within 1 year) mostly because the case fatality rate could be much lower than the currently reported rate, and previous illnesses like the swine flu became looking much less serious after more data came out. [ETA: I did a lot more research. I think it’s now like 5% risk of this.]
Let’s say that the case fatality rate turns out to be 0.3% or something, and the illness does start looking like an abnormally bad flu, and people stop caring within months. “Experts” face no sort of criticism since they remained calm and were vindicated. People like us sigh in relief, and are perhaps reminded by the “experts” that there was nothing to worry about.
But let’s say that the case fatality rate actually turns out to be 3%, and 50% of the global population is infected. Then it’s a huge deal, global recession looks inevitable. “Experts” say that the disease is worse than anyone could have possibly seen coming, and most people believe them. People like us aren’t really vindicated, because everyone knows that the alarmists who predict doom every year will get it right occasionally.
Like with cryonics, the relatively low but still significant chance of a huge outcome makes people systematically refuse to calculate expected value. It’s not a good feature of human psychology.
When I observe that there’s no fire alarm for AGI, I’m not saying that there’s no possible equivalent of smoke appearing from under a door.
What I’m saying rather is that the smoke under the door is always going to be arguable; it is not going to be a clear and undeniable and absolute sign of fire; and so there is never going to be a fire alarm producing common knowledge that action is now due and socially acceptable.
I think what we’re seeing now is the smoke coming out from under the door and people don’t want to be the first one to cause a scene.
I think the main reason is that the social dynamic is probably favorable to them in the longrun. I worry that there is a higher social risk to being alarmist than being calm. Let me try to illustrate one scenario:
My current estimate is that there is only 15 − 20% probability of a global disaster (>50 million deaths within 1 year) mostly because the case fatality rate could be much lower than the currently reported rate, and previous illnesses like the swine flu became looking much less serious after more data came out. [ETA: I did a lot more research. I think it’s now like 5% risk of this.]
Let’s say that the case fatality rate turns out to be 0.3% or something, and the illness does start looking like an abnormally bad flu, and people stop caring within months. “Experts” face no sort of criticism since they remained calm and were vindicated. People like us sigh in relief, and are perhaps reminded by the “experts” that there was nothing to worry about.
But let’s say that the case fatality rate actually turns out to be 3%, and 50% of the global population is infected. Then it’s a huge deal, global recession looks inevitable. “Experts” say that the disease is worse than anyone could have possibly seen coming, and most people believe them. People like us aren’t really vindicated, because everyone knows that the alarmists who predict doom every year will get it right occasionally.
Like with cryonics, the relatively low but still significant chance of a huge outcome makes people systematically refuse to calculate expected value. It’s not a good feature of human psychology.
I’m reminded of the fire alarm essay
I think what we’re seeing now is the smoke coming out from under the door and people don’t want to be the first one to cause a scene.
I’ve moved in the opposite direction. Please share your research?