The update was more straightforward, based on “I looked at some things that are definitely cults, what Michael does seems less extremal and insular in comparison, therefore it seems less likely for Michael to run into the same problems”. I don’t think that update required agreeing with your theory to any substantial degree.
I do think your paragraph still clarified things a bit for me, though with my current understanding, presumably the group to compare yourself against are less cults, and more just like, average people who are somewhat further out on some interesting dimension. And if you notice that average people seem really crazy and cult-like to you, then I do think this is something to pay attention to (though like, average people are also really crazy on lots of topics, like schooling and death and economics and various COVID related things that I feel pretty confident in, and so I don’t think this is some kind of knockdown argument, though I do think having arrived at truths that large fractions of the population don’t believe definitely increase the risks from insularity).
I definitely don’t want to imply that agreement with the majority is a metric, rather the ability to have a discussion at all, to be able to see part of the world they’re seeing and take that information into account in your own view (which might be called “interpretive labor” or “active listening”).
Agree. I do think the two are often kind of entwined (like, I am not capable of holding arbitrarily many maps of the world in my mind at the same time, so when I arrive at some unconventional beliefs that has broad consequences, the new models based on that belief will often replace more conventional models of the domain, and I will have to spend time regenerating the more conventional models and beliefs in conversation with someone who doesn’t hold the unconventional belief, which does frequently make the conversation kind of harder, and I still don’t think is evidence of something going terribly wrong)
Oh, something that might not have been clear is that talking with other people Michael knows made it clear that Michael was less insular than MIRI/CFAR people (who would have been less able to talk with such a diverse group of people, afaict), not just that he was less insular than people in cults.
The update was more straightforward, based on “I looked at some things that are definitely cults, what Michael does seems less extremal and insular in comparison, therefore it seems less likely for Michael to run into the same problems”. I don’t think that update required agreeing with your theory to any substantial degree.
I do think your paragraph still clarified things a bit for me, though with my current understanding, presumably the group to compare yourself against are less cults, and more just like, average people who are somewhat further out on some interesting dimension. And if you notice that average people seem really crazy and cult-like to you, then I do think this is something to pay attention to (though like, average people are also really crazy on lots of topics, like schooling and death and economics and various COVID related things that I feel pretty confident in, and so I don’t think this is some kind of knockdown argument, though I do think having arrived at truths that large fractions of the population don’t believe definitely increase the risks from insularity).
I definitely don’t want to imply that agreement with the majority is a metric, rather the ability to have a discussion at all, to be able to see part of the world they’re seeing and take that information into account in your own view (which might be called “interpretive labor” or “active listening”).
Agree. I do think the two are often kind of entwined (like, I am not capable of holding arbitrarily many maps of the world in my mind at the same time, so when I arrive at some unconventional beliefs that has broad consequences, the new models based on that belief will often replace more conventional models of the domain, and I will have to spend time regenerating the more conventional models and beliefs in conversation with someone who doesn’t hold the unconventional belief, which does frequently make the conversation kind of harder, and I still don’t think is evidence of something going terribly wrong)
Oh, something that might not have been clear is that talking with other people Michael knows made it clear that Michael was less insular than MIRI/CFAR people (who would have been less able to talk with such a diverse group of people, afaict), not just that he was less insular than people in cults.