If you’re not disagreeing with people about important things then you’re not thinking.
Indeed. And if the people object against someone disagreeing with them, that would imply they are 100% certain about being right.
I recently overheard someone (who I’d not met before) telling Eliezer Yudkowsky that he’s not allowed to have extreme beliefs about AGI outcomes.
On one hand, this suggests that the pressure to groupthink is strong. On the other hand, this is evidence of Eliezer not being treated as an infallible leader… which I suppose is a good news in this avalanche of bad news.
(There is a method to reduce group pressure, by making everyone write their opinion first, and only then tell each other the opinions. Problem is, this stops working if you estimate the same thing repeatedly, because people already know what the group opinion was in the past.)
Indeed. And if the people object against someone disagreeing with them, that would imply they are 100% certain about being right.
On one hand, this suggests that the pressure to groupthink is strong. On the other hand, this is evidence of Eliezer not being treated as an infallible leader… which I suppose is a good news in this avalanche of bad news.
(There is a method to reduce group pressure, by making everyone write their opinion first, and only then tell each other the opinions. Problem is, this stops working if you estimate the same thing repeatedly, because people already know what the group opinion was in the past.)