As an example of the difficulties in illusions of transparency, when I first read the post, my first interpretation of “largely fake research” was neither of what you said or what jessicata clarified below but I simply assumed that “fake research” ⇒ “untrue,” in the sense that people who updated from >50% of research from those orgs will on average have a worse Brier score on related topics. This didn’t seem unlikely to me on the face of it, since random error, motivated reasoning, and other systemic biases can all contribute to having bad models of the world.
Since 3 people can have 4 different interpretations of the same phrase, this makes me worried that there are many other semantic confusions I didn’t spot.
As an example of the difficulties in illusions of transparency, when I first read the post, my first interpretation of “largely fake research” was neither of what you said or what jessicata clarified below but I simply assumed that “fake research” ⇒ “untrue,” in the sense that people who updated from >50% of research from those orgs will on average have a worse Brier score on related topics. This didn’t seem unlikely to me on the face of it, since random error, motivated reasoning, and other systemic biases can all contribute to having bad models of the world.
Since 3 people can have 4 different interpretations of the same phrase, this makes me worried that there are many other semantic confusions I didn’t spot.