I feel like the paragraph you cited just seems like the straightforward explanation of where my belief comes from?
Among 16 studies reporting the prevalence of clinically significant symptoms of depression across 23,469 Ph.D. students, the pooled estimate of the proportion of students with depression was 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18–0.31; I2 = 98.75%). In a meta-analysis of the nine studies reporting the prevalence of clinically significant symptoms of anxiety across 15,626 students, the estimated proportion of students with anxiety was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.12–0.23; I2 = 98.05%)
24% of people have depression, 17% have anxiety, resulting in something like 30%-40% having one or the other.
I did not remember the section about the screening instruments over-identifying cases of depression/anxiety by approximately a factor of two, which definitely cuts down my number, and I should have adjusted it in my above comment. I do think that factor of ~2 does maybe make me think that we are doing a bit worse than grad students, though I am not super sure.
Sorry, maybe this is too nitpicky, but clinically significant symptoms =/= clinically diagnosed, even in worlds where the clinically significant symptoms are severe enough to be diagnosed as such.
If you instead said in “population studies 30-40% of graduate students have anxiety or depression severe enough to be clinically diagnosed as such were they to seek diagnosis” then I think this will be a normal misreading from not jumping through enough links.
Put another way, if someone in mid-2020 told me that they had symptomatic covid and was formally diagnosed with covid, I would expect that they had worse symptoms than someone who said they had covid symptoms and later tested for covid antibodies. This is because jumping through the hoops to get a clinical diagnosis is nontrivial Bayesian evidence of severity and not just certainty, under most circumstances, and especially when testing is limited and/or gatekeeped (which is true for many parts of the world for covid in 2020, and is usually true in the US for mental health).
I feel like the paragraph you cited just seems like the straightforward explanation of where my belief comes from?
24% of people have depression, 17% have anxiety, resulting in something like 30%-40% having one or the other.
I did not remember the section about the screening instruments over-identifying cases of depression/anxiety by approximately a factor of two, which definitely cuts down my number, and I should have adjusted it in my above comment. I do think that factor of ~2 does maybe make me think that we are doing a bit worse than grad students, though I am not super sure.
Sorry, maybe this is too nitpicky, but clinically significant symptoms =/= clinically diagnosed, even in worlds where the clinically significant symptoms are severe enough to be diagnosed as such.
If you instead said in “population studies 30-40% of graduate students have anxiety or depression severe enough to be clinically diagnosed as such were they to seek diagnosis” then I think this will be a normal misreading from not jumping through enough links.
Put another way, if someone in mid-2020 told me that they had symptomatic covid and was formally diagnosed with covid, I would expect that they had worse symptoms than someone who said they had covid symptoms and later tested for covid antibodies. This is because jumping through the hoops to get a clinical diagnosis is nontrivial Bayesian evidence of severity and not just certainty, under most circumstances, and especially when testing is limited and/or gatekeeped (which is true for many parts of the world for covid in 2020, and is usually true in the US for mental health).
Ah, sorry, yes. Me being unclear on that was also bad. The phrasing you give is the one I intended to convey, though I sure didn’t do it.
Thanks, appreciate the update!