It’s a guess based on limited information, obviously. I tagged it as in inference. It’s not just based on public information, it’s also based on having talked with some ex-Leverage people. I don’t like that you’re considering it really important for ex-Leverage people to say things were “really bad” for them while discouraging me from saying things about how bad my own (and others’) experiences were, that’s optimizing for a predetermined conclusion in opposition to actually listening to people (which could reveal unexpected information). I’ll revise my estimate if I get sufficient evidence in the other direction.
It’s a guess based on limited information, obviously. I tagged it as in inference. It’s not just based on public information, it’s also based on having talked with some ex-Leverage people. I don’t like that you’re considering it really important for ex-Leverage people to say things were “really bad” for them while discouraging me from saying things about how bad my own (and others’) experiences were, that’s optimizing for a predetermined conclusion in opposition to actually listening to people (which could reveal unexpected information). I’ll revise my estimate if I get sufficient evidence in the other direction.