Your point is apparent—you try to reinterpret all human thinking in terms of probability—but it just isn’t true. There’s lots of books on how to think about chess. They do not advise what you suggest. Many people follow the advice they do give, which is different and unlike what computers do.
People learn explanations like “control the center because it gives your pieces more mobility” and “usually develop knights before bishops because it’s easier to figure out the correct square for them”.
Chess programs do things like count up how many squares each piece on the board can move to. When humans play they don’t count that. They will instead do stuff like think about what squares they consider important and worry about those.
That’s not how chess players think.
Your point is apparent—you try to reinterpret all human thinking in terms of probability—but it just isn’t true. There’s lots of books on how to think about chess. They do not advise what you suggest. Many people follow the advice they do give, which is different and unlike what computers do.
People learn explanations like “control the center because it gives your pieces more mobility” and “usually develop knights before bishops because it’s easier to figure out the correct square for them”.
Chess programs do things like count up how many squares each piece on the board can move to. When humans play they don’t count that. They will instead do stuff like think about what squares they consider important and worry about those.
Notice how this sentence is actually a prediction in disguise
As is this