You are taking rejection as a bigger deal than it is. The theory that “X is the perfect explanation” for X that confuses some people is false.
Maybe QM is exactly right, and maybe it is just too complicated for some people to understand. There is no need to be so harsh in your criticism process, why not just admit that a theory can be right without being perfect in every other respect.
It means “without doubt”. Saying things like “I have no doubt that X” when there is doubt is just dumb.
Yet everyone does it. Language is a convention, not a science. If you are using a word differently from everyone else then you are wrong, the dictionary has no authority on the matter.
The problem situation is under specified. When you ask ambiguous questions like what should I do in [under specified situation] then you get multiple possible answers and it’s hard to do much in the way of criticizing.
This is a flaw. Bayes can handle any level of information.
I can’t criticize 20 vs 21 unless I have some goal in mind, some problem we are trying to solve. (If there is no problem to be solved, I won’t flip at all.) If the problem is figuring out if the coin is fair, with certainty, that is not solvable, so I won’t flip at all. If it is figuring it out with a particular probability, given a few reasonable background assumptions, then I will look up the right math to use. If it’s something else, what?
Can you really not see why the above is moving the goal posts. Earlier, you said that you think by coming up with conjectures, and criticising them, and only then make decisions. Now you are putting the decision making process in the driving seat and saying that everything is based on that. So is Popperianism purely pragmatic? Is the whole conjecture and criticism thing not really the important part, and in fact its all based on decision strategies. Or do you use the conjecture-criticism thing to try and reach the correct answer, as you have previously stated, and then use that for decision making.
If it demolishes zero individual ideas, then where is the erosion?
It makes the idea less likely, less plausible, by a small amount. The coin flip is intended to illustrate it. Saying that you will use Bayes in the coin flip example and nowhere else is like saying you believe Newton’s laws work ‘inside the laboratory’ but you’re going to keep using Aristotle outside.
Maybe QM is exactly right, and maybe it is just too complicated for some people to understand. There is no need to be so harsh in your criticism process, why not just admit that a theory can be right without being perfect in every other respect.
Yet everyone does it. Language is a convention, not a science. If you are using a word differently from everyone else then you are wrong, the dictionary has no authority on the matter.
This is a flaw. Bayes can handle any level of information.
Can you really not see why the above is moving the goal posts. Earlier, you said that you think by coming up with conjectures, and criticising them, and only then make decisions. Now you are putting the decision making process in the driving seat and saying that everything is based on that. So is Popperianism purely pragmatic? Is the whole conjecture and criticism thing not really the important part, and in fact its all based on decision strategies. Or do you use the conjecture-criticism thing to try and reach the correct answer, as you have previously stated, and then use that for decision making.
It makes the idea less likely, less plausible, by a small amount. The coin flip is intended to illustrate it. Saying that you will use Bayes in the coin flip example and nowhere else is like saying you believe Newton’s laws work ‘inside the laboratory’ but you’re going to keep using Aristotle outside.