Yudkowsky says Bayesian Epistemology dethrones and replaces Popper. He regards it as a rival theory to Popper’s. Do you think Yudkowsky was wrong about that?
It replaces Popperian epistemology where their domains overlap—namely: building models from observations and using them to predict the future. It won’t alone tell you what experiments to perform in order to gather more data—there are other puzzle pieces for dealing with that.
There’s no overlap there b/c Popperian epistemology doesn’t provide the specific details of how to do that. Popperian epistemology is fully compatible with, and can use, Bayes’ theorem and any other pure math or logic insights.
Popperian epistemology contradicts your “other puzzle pieces”. And without them, Bayes’ theorem alone isn’t epistemology.
building models from observations and using them to predict the future
I thought you were referring to things you can do with Bayes’ theorem and some input. If you meant something more, provide the details of what you are proposing.
It replaces Popperian epistemology where their domains overlap—namely: building models from observations and using them to predict the future. It won’t alone tell you what experiments to perform in order to gather more data—there are other puzzle pieces for dealing with that.
There’s no overlap there b/c Popperian epistemology doesn’t provide the specific details of how to do that. Popperian epistemology is fully compatible with, and can use, Bayes’ theorem and any other pure math or logic insights.
Popperian epistemology contradicts your “other puzzle pieces”. And without them, Bayes’ theorem alone isn’t epistemology.
Except for the advice on induction? Or has induction merely been rechristened as corroboration? Popper enthusiasts usually seem to deny doing that.
Induction doesn’t work.
I thought you were referring to things you can do with Bayes’ theorem and some input. If you meant something more, provide the details of what you are proposing.
Building models from observations and using them to predict the future is what Solomonoff induction does. It is Occam’s razor plus Bayes’s theorem.