My subjective anticipation is mollified by the thought that I’ll probably either never experience dying or wake up to find that I’ve been in an ancestral simulation, which leaves the part of me that wants to prevent all the empty galaxies from going to waste to work in peace. :)
Update: Recent events have made me think that the fraction of advanced civilizations in the multiverse that are sane may be quite low. (It looks like our civilization will probably build a superintelligence while suffering from serious epistemic pathologies, and this may be be typical for civilizations throughout the multiverse.) So now I’m pretty worried about “waking up” in some kind of dystopia (powered or controlled by a superintelligence with twisted beliefs or values), either in my own future lightcone or in another universe.
Actually, I probably shouldn’t have been so optimistic even before the recent events...
I updated downward somewhat on the sanity of our civilization, but not to an extremely low value or from a high value. That update justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average human civilization (maybe the problem is specific to our history and culture), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average civilization (maybe the problem is specific to humans), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of outcomes (maybe achieving high sanity is really easy or hard). So all things considered (aside from your second paragraph) it doesn’t seem like it justifies, say, doubling the amount of worry about these things.
I agree recent events don’t justify a huge update by themselves if one started with a reasonable prior. It’s more that I somehow failed to consider the possibility of that scenario, the recent events made me consider it, and that’s why it triggered a big update for me.
Now I’m curious. Does studying history make you update in a similar way? I feel that these times are not especially insane compared to the rest of history, though the scale of the problems might be bigger.
Now I’m curious. Does studying history make you update in a similar way?
History is not one of my main interests, but I would guess yes, which is why I said “Actually, I probably shouldn’t have been so optimistic even before the recent events...”
I feel that these times are not especially insane compared to the rest of history, though the scale of the problems might be bigger.
Agreed. I think I was under the impression that western civilization managed to fix a lot of the especially bad epistemic pathologies in a somewhat stable way, and was unpleasantly surprised when that turned out not to be the case.
Update: Recent events have made me think that the fraction of advanced civilizations in the multiverse that are sane may be quite low. (It looks like our civilization will probably build a superintelligence while suffering from serious epistemic pathologies, and this may be be typical for civilizations throughout the multiverse.) So now I’m pretty worried about “waking up” in some kind of dystopia (powered or controlled by a superintelligence with twisted beliefs or values), either in my own future lightcone or in another universe.
Actually, I probably shouldn’t have been so optimistic even before the recent events...
I updated downward somewhat on the sanity of our civilization, but not to an extremely low value or from a high value. That update justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average human civilization (maybe the problem is specific to our history and culture), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of the average civilization (maybe the problem is specific to humans), which justifies only a partial update on the sanity of outcomes (maybe achieving high sanity is really easy or hard). So all things considered (aside from your second paragraph) it doesn’t seem like it justifies, say, doubling the amount of worry about these things.
I agree recent events don’t justify a huge update by themselves if one started with a reasonable prior. It’s more that I somehow failed to consider the possibility of that scenario, the recent events made me consider it, and that’s why it triggered a big update for me.
Now I’m curious. Does studying history make you update in a similar way? I feel that these times are not especially insane compared to the rest of history, though the scale of the problems might be bigger.
History is not one of my main interests, but I would guess yes, which is why I said “Actually, I probably shouldn’t have been so optimistic even before the recent events...”
Agreed. I think I was under the impression that western civilization managed to fix a lot of the especially bad epistemic pathologies in a somewhat stable way, and was unpleasantly surprised when that turned out not to be the case.