I believe that, while the LLM architecture may not lead to AGI (see https://bigthink.com/the-future/arc-prize-agi/ for the reasons why—basically current models are rules interpolators, not rules extrapolators, though they are definitely data extrapolators), they will succeed in killing all computer languages. That is, there will be no intermediate rust, python, wasm or machine code. The AI will be the interpreter and executor of what we now call “prompts”. They will also radically change the UI/UX paradigm. No menus, no buttons, no windows—those are all artifacts of 1980s. The controls will be whatever you need them to be: voice, text, keypresses… Think of your grandma figuring out how to do something on her PC or phone and asking you, only the you will be the AI. There will be rigid specialized interfaces for, say, gaming, but those will be a small minority.
Email didn’t entirely kill fax machines or paper records. For similar reasons, I expect that LLMs will not entirely kill computer languages.
Also, I expect things to go the other direction—I expect that as LLMs get better at writing code, they will generate enormous amounts of one-off code. For example, one thing that is not practical to do now but will be practical to do in a year or so is to have sales or customer service webpages where the affordances given to the user (e.g. which buttons and links are shown, what data the page asks for and in what format) will be customized on a per-user basis. For example, when asking for payment information, currently the UI is almost universally credit card number / cvv / name / billing street address / unit / zipcode / state. However, “hold your credit card and id up to the camera” might be easier for some people, while others might want to read out that information, and yet others might want to use venmo or whatever, and a significant fraction will want to stick to the old form fields format. If web developers developed 1,000x faster and 1,000x as cheaply, it would be worth it to custom-develop each of these flows to capture a handful of marginal customers. But forcing everyone to use the LLM interface would likely cost customers.
Yeah, I think this is exactly what I meant. There will still be boutique usage for hand-crafted computer programs just like there is now for penpals writing pretty decorated letters to each other. Granted, fax is still a thing in old-fashioned bureaucracies like Germany, so maybe there will be a requirement for “no LLM” code as well, but it appears much harder to enforce.
I think your point on infinite and cheap UI/UX customizations is well taken. The LLM will fit seamlessly one level below that. There will be no “LLM interface” just interface.
I believe that, while the LLM architecture may not lead to AGI (see https://bigthink.com/the-future/arc-prize-agi/ for the reasons why—basically current models are rules interpolators, not rules extrapolators, though they are definitely data extrapolators), they will succeed in killing all computer languages. That is, there will be no intermediate rust, python, wasm or machine code. The AI will be the interpreter and executor of what we now call “prompts”. They will also radically change the UI/UX paradigm. No menus, no buttons, no windows—those are all artifacts of 1980s. The controls will be whatever you need them to be: voice, text, keypresses… Think of your grandma figuring out how to do something on her PC or phone and asking you, only the you will be the AI. There will be rigid specialized interfaces for, say, gaming, but those will be a small minority.
Email didn’t entirely kill fax machines or paper records. For similar reasons, I expect that LLMs will not entirely kill computer languages.
Also, I expect things to go the other direction—I expect that as LLMs get better at writing code, they will generate enormous amounts of one-off code. For example, one thing that is not practical to do now but will be practical to do in a year or so is to have sales or customer service webpages where the affordances given to the user (e.g. which buttons and links are shown, what data the page asks for and in what format) will be customized on a per-user basis. For example, when asking for payment information, currently the UI is almost universally credit card number / cvv / name / billing street address / unit / zipcode / state. However, “hold your credit card and id up to the camera” might be easier for some people, while others might want to read out that information, and yet others might want to use venmo or whatever, and a significant fraction will want to stick to the old form fields format. If web developers developed 1,000x faster and 1,000x as cheaply, it would be worth it to custom-develop each of these flows to capture a handful of marginal customers. But forcing everyone to use the LLM interface would likely cost customers.
Yeah, I think this is exactly what I meant. There will still be boutique usage for hand-crafted computer programs just like there is now for penpals writing pretty decorated letters to each other. Granted, fax is still a thing in old-fashioned bureaucracies like Germany, so maybe there will be a requirement for “no LLM” code as well, but it appears much harder to enforce.
I think your point on infinite and cheap UI/UX customizations is well taken. The LLM will fit seamlessly one level below that. There will be no “LLM interface” just interface.