Question about vaccination: I have seen various sources claiming that to end the pandemic we should have vaccinated over a certain percentage of the population (say, on the scale of a country).
However we have not and now the virus has mutated repeatedly. From this point of view, it sounds as if we will never be over it unless everyone gets bored or something. There is no end in sight as far as I can see. In my country, 61.7% are fully vaccinated, yet the number of daily cases & deaths is indistinguishable from the last fall. Worse, even.
What are your thoughts? I know this is not a rigorous comment (no sources), for this I apologize.
In Slovakia, comparing the beginning of Novembers 2020 and 2021, the daily number of cases is higher than the last year (700 vs 400), but the daily number of deaths is the same (4). Also, the behavior has changed; year ago people were worried, this year they are almost careless.
Comparison between winter 2020 and the beginning of Novermber 2021 shows even greater difference, more cases today than whenever during the last winter (700 vs 600) and yet much fewer deaths today than the maximum of the last winter (4 vs 18). But this is possibly not a fair comparison, because there is some seasonality of the virus, and also the number of deaths may be lagging behind the number of cases.
Considering all this, the vaccines at least divide the danger by 2, but potentially by 5 or more.
Why do you mention mutation? Are you worried that mutation will evade vaccines? This hasn’t happened yet: the important new strains all appeared before there was much vaccination. They spread because they were generally more infectious, not because they infected people immune to the old variant. In particular, the trial of the beta-specific vaccine found that it took twice as many antibodies of of someone vaccinated with the original to defeat beta as antibodies of someone vaccinated with the beta vaccine. Twice isn’t a lot. The standard for flu vaccines for replacing vaccines with those targeting a new strain is a factor of eight.
I keep checking nextstrain.org and Delta comfortably remains the king of the monsters. With evolutionary convergence, there is a limit as to how “bad” a virus can get from a transmissibility perspective. I can’t guarantee that we’re there, but it sure looks like we might be.
Yep. That’s my thinking too. I’d love to know if there’s a way of measuring how far off Delta is from the four endemic coronaviruses. Are there common characteristics of “domesticated” coronaviruses that we could be looking for? Like neoteny in domesticated cats and dogs?
Cases are equal because lots of people are vaccinated, but delta is more contagious. The real impact in terms of deaths / hospitalizations will be less. Also, eventually everyone will be immune: either vaccinated or recovered.
So don’t despair. It will be over after this winter.
I think we can generalize Zvi’s “over for you” concept to “It’s over when it’s over for a group of n people that you belong to”, where you decide which n is relevant for you (your extended family? your circle of friends? your block? your apartment building? your village?)
Question about vaccination: I have seen various sources claiming that to end the pandemic we should have vaccinated over a certain percentage of the population (say, on the scale of a country).
However we have not and now the virus has mutated repeatedly. From this point of view, it sounds as if we will never be over it unless everyone gets bored or something. There is no end in sight as far as I can see. In my country, 61.7% are fully vaccinated, yet the number of daily cases & deaths is indistinguishable from the last fall. Worse, even.
What are your thoughts? I know this is not a rigorous comment (no sources), for this I apologize.
In Slovakia, comparing the beginning of Novembers 2020 and 2021, the daily number of cases is higher than the last year (700 vs 400), but the daily number of deaths is the same (4). Also, the behavior has changed; year ago people were worried, this year they are almost careless.
Comparison between winter 2020 and the beginning of Novermber 2021 shows even greater difference, more cases today than whenever during the last winter (700 vs 600) and yet much fewer deaths today than the maximum of the last winter (4 vs 18). But this is possibly not a fair comparison, because there is some seasonality of the virus, and also the number of deaths may be lagging behind the number of cases.
Considering all this, the vaccines at least divide the danger by 2, but potentially by 5 or more.
Why do you mention mutation? Are you worried that mutation will evade vaccines? This hasn’t happened yet: the important new strains all appeared before there was much vaccination. They spread because they were generally more infectious, not because they infected people immune to the old variant. In particular, the trial of the beta-specific vaccine found that it took twice as many antibodies of of someone vaccinated with the original to defeat beta as antibodies of someone vaccinated with the beta vaccine. Twice isn’t a lot. The standard for flu vaccines for replacing vaccines with those targeting a new strain is a factor of eight.
I keep checking nextstrain.org and Delta comfortably remains the king of the monsters. With evolutionary convergence, there is a limit as to how “bad” a virus can get from a transmissibility perspective. I can’t guarantee that we’re there, but it sure looks like we might be.
Yep. That’s my thinking too. I’d love to know if there’s a way of measuring how far off Delta is from the four endemic coronaviruses. Are there common characteristics of “domesticated” coronaviruses that we could be looking for? Like neoteny in domesticated cats and dogs?
Cases are equal because lots of people are vaccinated, but delta is more contagious. The real impact in terms of deaths / hospitalizations will be less. Also, eventually everyone will be immune: either vaccinated or recovered.
So don’t despair. It will be over after this winter.
I think we can generalize Zvi’s “over for you” concept to “It’s over when it’s over for a group of n people that you belong to”, where you decide which n is relevant for you (your extended family? your circle of friends? your block? your apartment building? your village?)