If the model is based on probabilities, then its counterfactuals are defined in terms of probabilities. If the model is not based on probabilities, then its counterfactuals are not defined in terms of probabilities. If the model has something in it called “free will”, then its counterfactuals will be defined in terms of “free will”.
Even if it’s true that counterfactuals are only defined within models, it doesn’t follow that you can always define counterfactuals within any given model. A model that contains (libertarian) free will embeds possibilities/probabilities anyway … the are doing the lifting.
Counterfactuals are defined relative to models.
If the model is based on probabilities, then its counterfactuals are defined in terms of probabilities. If the model is not based on probabilities, then its counterfactuals are not defined in terms of probabilities. If the model has something in it called “free will”, then its counterfactuals will be defined in terms of “free will”.
Even if it’s true that counterfactuals are only defined within models, it doesn’t follow that you can always define counterfactuals within any given model. A model that contains (libertarian) free will embeds possibilities/probabilities anyway … the are doing the lifting.