I’m going to suggest some initial steps from Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa’s book, Smart Choices. The first step is problem definition, which I think accords with the advice discussed on this website to hold off on proposing solutions until you’ve examined the problem thoroughly. Here are some of their ideas:
Be creative about your problem definition; don’t necessarily state it the first way it pops into your mind. Is the problem simply about mitigating existential risk? Or is it about giving your life purpose and meaning? Or is it that you want to prolong your own life as long as you can, and anything that poses a risk to the entire human race also poses a risk to you? Be honest here; don’t give the socially acceptable answer if it’s not the real answer.
Ask what triggered the decision. Why are you even considering it? This can provide a link to the essential problem, but beware of letting it lock you into thinking about the problem only in the way it first occurred to you. It sounds like the college issue, and perhaps the whole “what am I going to do with my life” question, is what prompted the decision. So is the problem really “where do I take my life next?”, or “where should I go to college?”, or “what career should I follow”, with the issue of existential risk being an important consideration?
Question the constraints in your problem statement. Is going to college necessary for you? Can you find any other hidden constraints or assumptions in your problem statement?
Identify the essential elements. What are possible threats to human existence? Or, if this is about “what should I do with my life”, figure out what your core values are, what makes you feel fulfilled, what things have you done in the past that made you feel good about yourself, etc.
Understand what other decisions hinge on this decision. You’ve already identified college major and choice of university as decisions that hinge on how you are going to contribute to mitigating existential risk.
Establish a sufficient but workable scope for your problem definition. In particular, make it clear what is not part of this decision, so as not to muddy the waters.
Gain fresh insights by asking others how they see the situation. You’re already doing this.
Definition- I could be very creative/broad with it and say that I’d like to develop a personal philosophy that combines motivational techniques, qualities I value in people, what I value in my work, etc. But that would be too broad for this topic. (I am working on this btw, right now I’m working on mind mapping. I’ve got to do some debugging of my old irrational beliefs). I also think that reducing existential risk is a means to an ends. I want to be uploaded, but the only way that’s going to happen is if I reduce existential risk (unless somehow there are limited computational resources and only a few people can be uploaded. Honestly, I don’t know how accurate any predictions we make right now are going to be. I tend to favor the prediction that we’ll be able to upload plenty of people).
What triggered the decision?- I’m graduating soon. I need to make a decision.
The question is really “How am I going to reduce existential risk and enjoy doing it”. I personally think that I’ll be happy no matter what decision I make. I used to be depressed, but I’ve gained some control over my mood. Also, as long as I’m working hard to reduce ExR, live up to my potential, and help others do so as well, I’ll be pretty happy. It’s just a matter of how to do that most effectively. I suppose you could add “helping others live up to their potential” as a separate goal or a sub-goal of reduce ExR.
Constraints- I don’t know if college is necessary for me. I’m applying for a Thiel Fellowship. However, my parents will not fund me unless I’m going to college so unless I get the Fellowship scholarship, I’m going to be going to college. The question of what to do in college is harder. Obviously there’s more to it than just grades. I want to network so that I can meet mentors, business people, friends, girls, etc. I also would like to write books. I’m currently planning on writing an ebook on education and autodidactism (tentative title: ignorance is piss). I used to be in a mindset of choosing one career and becoming good at it (like the 10K hours rule. I actually have a copy of K.A.Ericcson’s “Cambridge Handbook on expertise and expert performance” that I got for Christmas). On the other hand, I think that a combination of computer science, math, and chemistry (with self-studied business and philosophy) would allow me to be highly generalized. I could do start-ups, consulting, programming, publishing. On the other hand, I’d rather be an expert at at least one thing rather than be a jack of all trades.
Essential elements- On a personal level I think that I’m going to take care of that regardless of what major/career I choose by reading up on meditation, stoicism, psychology, PUA, NVC, IFS, etc. The essential elements of a good career...hmm. I have been thinking about this. I don’t want to have some idiot boss. I want a job that allows me to learn on the job (20 years experience, not 5 years experience 4X). I’d like a career that advances the pace at which progress is made (as that would have the largest net impact). So I was thinking about investigating nootropics, but since the funding structure of medicine is such that little research is devoted to human enhancement/augmentation. So, now I’m thinking something like education reform. Also, I think the idea behind debategraphs/knowledemapping would highly benefit the advancement of knowledge if it were widely adopted.
conditionals/hinging decisions- dealt with.
scope- the scope is fairly large. I don’t really see how it could be larger. I’m trying to think about ExR and the future of humanity to reduce it. I’m thinking about what I want to do after college. Personally, I’ve been thinking lately about how my plans never last for more than a couple months. My plan so far has been to acquire goal stability by reading a lot so that I identify all the unknown unknowns of the problem. Now that I have done that (to some extent), the next step is to make a mind-map with all these considerations in mind. Also, I feel like once I get to college, my plans will change drastically. Perhaps they won’t. That would be good.
fresh insights- I’ve talked to people sitting next to me on the plane. My extended family. and several LWers. Slowly and steadily, I’m gaining goal stability.
The main points I’m getting from the above, in terms of problem definition, are these:
Reducing existential risk is a means to an end. The problem is how to ensure that your existence continues for a very, very long time (so that you get to do lots of fun stuff and have lots of interesting experiences?) At least, I presume that is why you want to get uploaded. Existential risk is one obstacle to achieving this, but not the only one.
Your problem is how to make a significant contribution to reducing existential risk and enjoy doing it. This seems a bit at odds with the previous statement, that reducing existential risk was a means to an end.
These two problem statements have very different implications for what you should do. For example, if the second one is really the problem you want to solve (have fun reducing existential risk), then it’s conceivable that you might trade off some expected lifespan to achieve it… which runs counter to the first.
I’ll be posting another comment later today on the second step: objectives. This is really a qualitative exploration of your utility function. You may find it useful to go back and forth between objectives and problem statement a bit until they are both clear in your mind.
There’s a concept that may be useful for you: the idea of achieving failure. It’s a phrase that Eric Ries uses to describe entrepreneurs who flawlessly execute the wrong plan. As HKR put it, “A good solution to a well-posed decision problem is almost always a smarter choice than an excellent solution to a poorly posed one.”
I want to be uploaded, but the only way that’s going to happen is if I reduce existential risk
What’s the chain of causation, here?
I’m somewhat skeptical of the value of goal stability for you right now. Human lives are long.
My recommendations:
Philosophy of Life: This is an important thing worth thinking about, but not too much or too frequently. You should write a draft now, with lots of question marks. Rewrite it from scratch annually, and compare. How are your experiences changing your perception of your values? Be suspicious of convergence before, say, age 25. Keep them private so you can be honest.
College Major: It sounds like flexibility is important at this stage. I would recommend something like a compsci/physics or compsci/chem double major. It’s easier to start with the hardest and move down than start with the middle and move up.
Don’t let college define your responsibilities. It’s easy to see that you’re getting As in all of your courses and think that you’ve done enough; set measurable goals for mentors, friends, girls, and give yourself grades on those.
A note on the recommendation to study physics: physicists can do anything. Seriously. You see physicists making contributions to computer science, biology, statistics, computational finance, etc. You rarely see non-physicists making significant contributions to physics. I think the reason for this is that physicists learn lots of very useful mathematics that can be applied in a wide variety of contexts… and unlike someone who earns a mathematics degree, their emphasis is on applying math to solving problems, rather than on math for its own sake. The other factor may be that physicists are trained to think in terms of fundamental principles; they expect to find some hidden underlying pattern that will bring order out of the chaos.
I’m going to suggest some initial steps from Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa’s book, Smart Choices. The first step is problem definition, which I think accords with the advice discussed on this website to hold off on proposing solutions until you’ve examined the problem thoroughly. Here are some of their ideas:
Be creative about your problem definition; don’t necessarily state it the first way it pops into your mind. Is the problem simply about mitigating existential risk? Or is it about giving your life purpose and meaning? Or is it that you want to prolong your own life as long as you can, and anything that poses a risk to the entire human race also poses a risk to you? Be honest here; don’t give the socially acceptable answer if it’s not the real answer.
Ask what triggered the decision. Why are you even considering it? This can provide a link to the essential problem, but beware of letting it lock you into thinking about the problem only in the way it first occurred to you. It sounds like the college issue, and perhaps the whole “what am I going to do with my life” question, is what prompted the decision. So is the problem really “where do I take my life next?”, or “where should I go to college?”, or “what career should I follow”, with the issue of existential risk being an important consideration?
Question the constraints in your problem statement. Is going to college necessary for you? Can you find any other hidden constraints or assumptions in your problem statement?
Identify the essential elements. What are possible threats to human existence? Or, if this is about “what should I do with my life”, figure out what your core values are, what makes you feel fulfilled, what things have you done in the past that made you feel good about yourself, etc.
Understand what other decisions hinge on this decision. You’ve already identified college major and choice of university as decisions that hinge on how you are going to contribute to mitigating existential risk.
Establish a sufficient but workable scope for your problem definition. In particular, make it clear what is not part of this decision, so as not to muddy the waters.
Gain fresh insights by asking others how they see the situation. You’re already doing this.
Definition- I could be very creative/broad with it and say that I’d like to develop a personal philosophy that combines motivational techniques, qualities I value in people, what I value in my work, etc. But that would be too broad for this topic. (I am working on this btw, right now I’m working on mind mapping. I’ve got to do some debugging of my old irrational beliefs). I also think that reducing existential risk is a means to an ends. I want to be uploaded, but the only way that’s going to happen is if I reduce existential risk (unless somehow there are limited computational resources and only a few people can be uploaded. Honestly, I don’t know how accurate any predictions we make right now are going to be. I tend to favor the prediction that we’ll be able to upload plenty of people).
What triggered the decision?- I’m graduating soon. I need to make a decision.
The question is really “How am I going to reduce existential risk and enjoy doing it”. I personally think that I’ll be happy no matter what decision I make. I used to be depressed, but I’ve gained some control over my mood. Also, as long as I’m working hard to reduce ExR, live up to my potential, and help others do so as well, I’ll be pretty happy. It’s just a matter of how to do that most effectively. I suppose you could add “helping others live up to their potential” as a separate goal or a sub-goal of reduce ExR.
Constraints- I don’t know if college is necessary for me. I’m applying for a Thiel Fellowship. However, my parents will not fund me unless I’m going to college so unless I get the Fellowship scholarship, I’m going to be going to college. The question of what to do in college is harder. Obviously there’s more to it than just grades. I want to network so that I can meet mentors, business people, friends, girls, etc. I also would like to write books. I’m currently planning on writing an ebook on education and autodidactism (tentative title: ignorance is piss). I used to be in a mindset of choosing one career and becoming good at it (like the 10K hours rule. I actually have a copy of K.A.Ericcson’s “Cambridge Handbook on expertise and expert performance” that I got for Christmas). On the other hand, I think that a combination of computer science, math, and chemistry (with self-studied business and philosophy) would allow me to be highly generalized. I could do start-ups, consulting, programming, publishing. On the other hand, I’d rather be an expert at at least one thing rather than be a jack of all trades.
Essential elements- On a personal level I think that I’m going to take care of that regardless of what major/career I choose by reading up on meditation, stoicism, psychology, PUA, NVC, IFS, etc. The essential elements of a good career...hmm. I have been thinking about this. I don’t want to have some idiot boss. I want a job that allows me to learn on the job (20 years experience, not 5 years experience 4X). I’d like a career that advances the pace at which progress is made (as that would have the largest net impact). So I was thinking about investigating nootropics, but since the funding structure of medicine is such that little research is devoted to human enhancement/augmentation. So, now I’m thinking something like education reform. Also, I think the idea behind debategraphs/knowledemapping would highly benefit the advancement of knowledge if it were widely adopted.
conditionals/hinging decisions- dealt with.
scope- the scope is fairly large. I don’t really see how it could be larger. I’m trying to think about ExR and the future of humanity to reduce it. I’m thinking about what I want to do after college. Personally, I’ve been thinking lately about how my plans never last for more than a couple months. My plan so far has been to acquire goal stability by reading a lot so that I identify all the unknown unknowns of the problem. Now that I have done that (to some extent), the next step is to make a mind-map with all these considerations in mind. Also, I feel like once I get to college, my plans will change drastically. Perhaps they won’t. That would be good.
fresh insights- I’ve talked to people sitting next to me on the plane. My extended family. and several LWers. Slowly and steadily, I’m gaining goal stability.
The main points I’m getting from the above, in terms of problem definition, are these:
Reducing existential risk is a means to an end. The problem is how to ensure that your existence continues for a very, very long time (so that you get to do lots of fun stuff and have lots of interesting experiences?) At least, I presume that is why you want to get uploaded. Existential risk is one obstacle to achieving this, but not the only one.
Your problem is how to make a significant contribution to reducing existential risk and enjoy doing it. This seems a bit at odds with the previous statement, that reducing existential risk was a means to an end.
These two problem statements have very different implications for what you should do. For example, if the second one is really the problem you want to solve (have fun reducing existential risk), then it’s conceivable that you might trade off some expected lifespan to achieve it… which runs counter to the first.
I’ll be posting another comment later today on the second step: objectives. This is really a qualitative exploration of your utility function. You may find it useful to go back and forth between objectives and problem statement a bit until they are both clear in your mind.
There’s a concept that may be useful for you: the idea of achieving failure. It’s a phrase that Eric Ries uses to describe entrepreneurs who flawlessly execute the wrong plan. As HKR put it, “A good solution to a well-posed decision problem is almost always a smarter choice than an excellent solution to a poorly posed one.”
What’s the chain of causation, here?
I’m somewhat skeptical of the value of goal stability for you right now. Human lives are long.
My recommendations:
Philosophy of Life: This is an important thing worth thinking about, but not too much or too frequently. You should write a draft now, with lots of question marks. Rewrite it from scratch annually, and compare. How are your experiences changing your perception of your values? Be suspicious of convergence before, say, age 25. Keep them private so you can be honest.
College Major: It sounds like flexibility is important at this stage. I would recommend something like a compsci/physics or compsci/chem double major. It’s easier to start with the hardest and move down than start with the middle and move up.
Don’t let college define your responsibilities. It’s easy to see that you’re getting As in all of your courses and think that you’ve done enough; set measurable goals for mentors, friends, girls, and give yourself grades on those.
A note on the recommendation to study physics: physicists can do anything. Seriously. You see physicists making contributions to computer science, biology, statistics, computational finance, etc. You rarely see non-physicists making significant contributions to physics. I think the reason for this is that physicists learn lots of very useful mathematics that can be applied in a wide variety of contexts… and unlike someone who earns a mathematics degree, their emphasis is on applying math to solving problems, rather than on math for its own sake. The other factor may be that physicists are trained to think in terms of fundamental principles; they expect to find some hidden underlying pattern that will bring order out of the chaos.
The other reason, of course, is that there’s nearly no work in physics itself.