That’s me! Username difference because I can’t register the handle I used there over here at the moment.
Thanks for the kudos. I do have another handle, though I’m going to continue not to associate these two.
I also think I got things about right, but I think anyone else taking an outside view would’ve expected roughly the same thing. I’m now noticing that in fact this post doesn’t give me enough information to assess how accurate my specific predictions were: this list of advice is suggestive but mostly not actually descriptive of what outcomes were not achieved as much as hoped, and how. I get the impression it’s mostly just a sort of failure to coalesce, which isn’t quite the outcome I expected but is not that far off from “someone will [...] fail to keep up with their chores”.
I also think I got things about right, but I think anyone else taking an outside view would’ve expected roughly the same thing.
I think you might be doing yourself a disservice. I took the majority of contemporary critcism was more directed towards (in caricature) ‘this is going to turn into a nasty cult!’ than (what I took your key insight to be) ‘it will peter out because the commander won’t actually have the required authority’.
So perhaps the typical ‘anyone else’ would have alighted on the wrong outside view, or at least the wrong question to apply it to (‘How likely would a group of rationalists end up sustaining a ‘dictator’ structure?‘, rather than ‘Conditional on having this structure, what would happen next?’)
That’s me! Username difference because I can’t register the handle I used there over here at the moment.
Thanks for the kudos. I do have another handle, though I’m going to continue not to associate these two.
I also think I got things about right, but I think anyone else taking an outside view would’ve expected roughly the same thing. I’m now noticing that in fact this post doesn’t give me enough information to assess how accurate my specific predictions were: this list of advice is suggestive but mostly not actually descriptive of what outcomes were not achieved as much as hoped, and how. I get the impression it’s mostly just a sort of failure to coalesce, which isn’t quite the outcome I expected but is not that far off from “someone will [...] fail to keep up with their chores”.
I think you might be doing yourself a disservice. I took the majority of contemporary critcism was more directed towards (in caricature) ‘this is going to turn into a nasty cult!’ than (what I took your key insight to be) ‘it will peter out because the commander won’t actually have the required authority’.
So perhaps the typical ‘anyone else’ would have alighted on the wrong outside view, or at least the wrong question to apply it to (‘How likely would a group of rationalists end up sustaining a ‘dictator’ structure?‘, rather than ‘Conditional on having this structure, what would happen next?’)
Meta note: We ported over the old LW passwords, so you can probably login again with that account. Let me know if it doesn’t work, so I can debug it.
It doesn’t work. It just gives “unknown error”. Trying to register the account gave “internal server error”.