Yes, precisely. (Transparency illusion strikes again! I had considered it obvious that the default outcome was “a few people are nudged slightly more towards becoming AI alignment researchers someday”, and that the outcome of “actually cause at least one very talented person to become AI alignment researcher who otherwise would not have, over the course of three weeks” was clearly in “resounding success” territory, whereas “turn half the attendees into AI alignment researchers” is in I’ll-eat-my-hat territory.)
Yes, precisely. (Transparency illusion strikes again! I had considered it obvious that the default outcome was “a few people are nudged slightly more towards becoming AI alignment researchers someday”, and that the outcome of “actually cause at least one very talented person to become AI alignment researcher who otherwise would not have, over the course of three weeks” was clearly in “resounding success” territory, whereas “turn half the attendees into AI alignment researchers” is in I’ll-eat-my-hat territory.)