It sounds like your 400k deaths median is “until herd immunity”, but then there’s a period where R < 1 but because people are currently infected it takes time for the virus to die out, even assuming no behavioral changes. Do you have a model for how long, and how many deaths, that later period takes?
It sounds like your 400k deaths median is “until herd immunity”, but then there’s a period where R < 1 but because people are currently infected it takes time for the virus to die out, even assuming no behavioral changes. Do you have a model for how long, and how many deaths, that later period takes?