If someone changes their positions frequently, AND they’re very confident in their positions, that’s a bad sign.
I don’t think he changes his mind too frequently, and being overly confident at the time of now-abandoned positions isn’t unusual. My point was that in Eliezer’s case a knowledgeable, smart, honest, and self-certain argument doesn’t imply strong evidence of truth, because those qualities appear in arguments that turned out false.
To be honest I think I was hoping someone would leap to his defense and crush my argument, giving me permission to be as sure as he is about his beliefs that I’ve adopted, whereas what I should do is keep a healthy amount of skepticism and resist any urge to read “Posted by Eliezer” as “trust this”.
I don’t think he changes his mind too frequently, and being overly confident at the time of now-abandoned positions isn’t unusual. My point was that in Eliezer’s case a knowledgeable, smart, honest, and self-certain argument doesn’t imply strong evidence of truth, because those qualities appear in arguments that turned out false.
To be honest I think I was hoping someone would leap to his defense and crush my argument, giving me permission to be as sure as he is about his beliefs that I’ve adopted, whereas what I should do is keep a healthy amount of skepticism and resist any urge to read “Posted by Eliezer” as “trust this”.