It seems like you are using the word predictable in a way that’s nonstandard. Everything is predictable. You can put a probability on whether an astroid will hit earth. The core question is what probability is warrented and for bitcoin a reasonable probability assessment would have suggested buying it.
Gold isn’t a good currency and there’s a lot of money stored in it. Similar arguments go for expensive art that gets brought with the belief that it appreciates.
If you look at the US, the central bank can’t make laws. It’s a Republican controlled congress and senate along with a Republican president who currently do. There are powerful people in Silicon Valley who lobby for bitcoin and Republican’s don’t want to pass regulation that makes life hard for business.
Thanks. I get your first paragraph. That’s what I was meaning to say.
On Bitcoin vs Gold: Gold has physical properties that make it very valuable. It is a great conductor of heat and electricity, the most corrosion resistant of all metals, highly maleable, aesthetically pleasing and scarce. Gold may have some degree of cultural/signalling effect driving its price up but I don’t know this for sure.
On Bitcoin vs Art: Art has its aesthetic value but obviously most of the price comes from its cultural/signalling value and scarcity.
Bitcoin obviously has scarcity in common, but if it doesn’t get market share as an actual goods and services trade currency then its inherent value just comes from whatever other people are willing to pay for it and not what it does (unless the fast, secure transactions feature is valuable enough on its own). Normal currency is scarce and backed by the government and therefore the entire economy of its country meaning you can use it to trade for X amount of goods/services in that country. Bitcoin is worth USD, which you can use to do all the above, but only because people are willing to pay lots for it. And people are only willing to pay lots for it because they expect in the future it will be worth more. Eventually people will stop wanting to buy it so then why would you hold it? Then you’d just put your money in stocks to get returns again.
I guess the question I’m really chasing an answer to is what would a future look like that justifies Bitcoin’s price?
Re 3rd paragraph: You’re right there. I wrongly assumed government would do the will of the central bank. In more authoritarian countries like China this may be the case soI’d expect them to be the first to implement such a policy.
I do think that bitcoins current price is more likely than not a bubble that will pop.
But to engage with the issue I don’t think that anybody buys artwork worth 9 figures of money for cultural/signaling value.
If you are in the US with a relatively trustworthy government it’s easy to hold USD and be confident that it won’t lose much value due to inflation. The same isn’t true in many other countries.
I think expensive art gets its value from the fact that really rich people are willing to buy it for social significance. On top of that intelligent art invesors will also buy it knowing that rich people in the future will still want to buy it, but there will be more competition because of the increased number of rich people and the scarcity created by it being held over time by a private seller (the longer it gets held the less likely you’ll get another chance to buy it in your lifetime). What’s your theory on where the value comes from?
Agree on your inflation point. However then your BTC is only a trade away from the less volatile USD. The value propostion seems tough with all the superior competition and better uses. Kinda psyched for the one with a prediction market attached.
I think that art has scarcity and that leads to rich people buying it because they think it wil appreciate in the future.
If you are in a third world country and the government raides your house they can easily take all the USD you have at home. On a bigger scale you have big organsiations buying massive numbers of treasury bills with negative yields because they don’t want to hold cash.
Even in the US you can have the government take your money via civil forfeiture if you carry too much cash around. Numbers suggest that the US police stole more money from citizens via civil forfeiture then was stolen in burglaries.
And scarcity, especially of anything with cultural value, gives prestige/significance to whoever owns it. Like rich people buying cool old but relatively useless cars. It’s just a cool think to have that everyone else will think is cool too. Most don’t care about its appreciation. Some may buy it for that purpose, but not all.
Valuable art pieces also confers prestige on any institutions that hold them. Everyone can oggle at how much the art is worth and assume this must be one of the best museums in the world.
Think of it like buying an overpriced but cool pair of limited edition shoes (Yeezy’s or whatever). Most people will wear them to show them off, but some people will never take them out of the box because they know in the future other people who want to wear them to show them off will pay even more for them. With art, showing it off doesn’t depreciate it so it’s like having LE shoes that never wear out.
It can’t just be scarcity. People have to want the art for some other reason for it to have that value. I can create an equally scarce piece of art by doing one painting, signing my name to it and never doing painting again. Picasso’s are valuable because they are great, famous for their greatness and scarce meaning it’s a big significant prestigious thing to own one.
I guess the question I’m really chasing an answer to is what would a future look like that justifies Bitcoin’s price?
The future used to look like a medium for anonymous, untraceable transactions beyond the control of governments for the sorts of goods that you need that to safely deal in. That was the primary, object-level selling point of Bitcoin. Then Silk Road got broken by law enforcement. The newer rivals have their own would-be killer apps to give them real value. I’m not sure what Bitcoin’s unique value proposition is these days. For anyone who has some Bitcoin and is willing to say: when did you last use it to buy something, and what?
Bitcoin is (currently) pretty much useless as a medium of exchange. It remains of some practical use as a store of value resilient to certain legal risks (e.g. as the answer to the question Eliezer asked in this Facebook post), and in general with a risk profile uncorrelated with other assets. Its strength over other cryptocurrencies for this use case is based primarily on being the most established Schelling point. It’s also possible (though not looking particularly likely) that future software changes will eventually make it useful as a medium of exchange again.
It seems like you are using the word predictable in a way that’s nonstandard. Everything is predictable. You can put a probability on whether an astroid will hit earth. The core question is what probability is warrented and for bitcoin a reasonable probability assessment would have suggested buying it.
Gold isn’t a good currency and there’s a lot of money stored in it. Similar arguments go for expensive art that gets brought with the belief that it appreciates.
If you look at the US, the central bank can’t make laws. It’s a Republican controlled congress and senate along with a Republican president who currently do. There are powerful people in Silicon Valley who lobby for bitcoin and Republican’s don’t want to pass regulation that makes life hard for business.
Thanks. I get your first paragraph. That’s what I was meaning to say.
On Bitcoin vs Gold: Gold has physical properties that make it very valuable. It is a great conductor of heat and electricity, the most corrosion resistant of all metals, highly maleable, aesthetically pleasing and scarce. Gold may have some degree of cultural/signalling effect driving its price up but I don’t know this for sure.
On Bitcoin vs Art: Art has its aesthetic value but obviously most of the price comes from its cultural/signalling value and scarcity.
Bitcoin obviously has scarcity in common, but if it doesn’t get market share as an actual goods and services trade currency then its inherent value just comes from whatever other people are willing to pay for it and not what it does (unless the fast, secure transactions feature is valuable enough on its own). Normal currency is scarce and backed by the government and therefore the entire economy of its country meaning you can use it to trade for X amount of goods/services in that country. Bitcoin is worth USD, which you can use to do all the above, but only because people are willing to pay lots for it. And people are only willing to pay lots for it because they expect in the future it will be worth more. Eventually people will stop wanting to buy it so then why would you hold it? Then you’d just put your money in stocks to get returns again.
I guess the question I’m really chasing an answer to is what would a future look like that justifies Bitcoin’s price?
Re 3rd paragraph: You’re right there. I wrongly assumed government would do the will of the central bank. In more authoritarian countries like China this may be the case soI’d expect them to be the first to implement such a policy.
I do think that bitcoins current price is more likely than not a bubble that will pop.
But to engage with the issue I don’t think that anybody buys artwork worth 9 figures of money for cultural/signaling value.
If you are in the US with a relatively trustworthy government it’s easy to hold USD and be confident that it won’t lose much value due to inflation. The same isn’t true in many other countries.
I think expensive art gets its value from the fact that really rich people are willing to buy it for social significance. On top of that intelligent art invesors will also buy it knowing that rich people in the future will still want to buy it, but there will be more competition because of the increased number of rich people and the scarcity created by it being held over time by a private seller (the longer it gets held the less likely you’ll get another chance to buy it in your lifetime). What’s your theory on where the value comes from?
Agree on your inflation point. However then your BTC is only a trade away from the less volatile USD. The value propostion seems tough with all the superior competition and better uses. Kinda psyched for the one with a prediction market attached.
I think that art has scarcity and that leads to rich people buying it because they think it wil appreciate in the future.
If you are in a third world country and the government raides your house they can easily take all the USD you have at home. On a bigger scale you have big organsiations buying massive numbers of treasury bills with negative yields because they don’t want to hold cash.
Even in the US you can have the government take your money via civil forfeiture if you carry too much cash around. Numbers suggest that the US police stole more money from citizens via civil forfeiture then was stolen in burglaries.
And scarcity, especially of anything with cultural value, gives prestige/significance to whoever owns it. Like rich people buying cool old but relatively useless cars. It’s just a cool think to have that everyone else will think is cool too. Most don’t care about its appreciation. Some may buy it for that purpose, but not all.
Valuable art pieces also confers prestige on any institutions that hold them. Everyone can oggle at how much the art is worth and assume this must be one of the best museums in the world.
Think of it like buying an overpriced but cool pair of limited edition shoes (Yeezy’s or whatever). Most people will wear them to show them off, but some people will never take them out of the box because they know in the future other people who want to wear them to show them off will pay even more for them. With art, showing it off doesn’t depreciate it so it’s like having LE shoes that never wear out.
It can’t just be scarcity. People have to want the art for some other reason for it to have that value. I can create an equally scarce piece of art by doing one painting, signing my name to it and never doing painting again. Picasso’s are valuable because they are great, famous for their greatness and scarce meaning it’s a big significant prestigious thing to own one.
The future used to look like a medium for anonymous, untraceable transactions beyond the control of governments for the sorts of goods that you need that to safely deal in. That was the primary, object-level selling point of Bitcoin. Then Silk Road got broken by law enforcement. The newer rivals have their own would-be killer apps to give them real value. I’m not sure what Bitcoin’s unique value proposition is these days. For anyone who has some Bitcoin and is willing to say: when did you last use it to buy something, and what?
Bitcoin is (currently) pretty much useless as a medium of exchange. It remains of some practical use as a store of value resilient to certain legal risks (e.g. as the answer to the question Eliezer asked in this Facebook post), and in general with a risk profile uncorrelated with other assets. Its strength over other cryptocurrencies for this use case is based primarily on being the most established Schelling point. It’s also possible (though not looking particularly likely) that future software changes will eventually make it useful as a medium of exchange again.
I think it’s safe to say it doesn’t have a unique value proposition anymore. It just has market share.