My understanding is that VCs only invest in about 1% of startups, even though probably 5-10% of startups have reasonably good stories for why they’ll be super successful, and where you could argue “surely they have at least a 0.1% chance of succeeding, so let’s invest in all of them.” If VCs lowered their standards by 5-10x, they would not make any money; that’s what I was trying to say.
The question isn’t how do you distinguish bitcoin from the 1% of startups that are worth investing in; it’s how do you distinguish it from the 5-10% of startups that look like they’re worth investing in according to the arguments in OP?
It seems to me that you’re conflating “succeeding” and “returning 5000x my money”. I think it’s obviously true that most startups don’t have a 0.1% chance of returning 5000x your money.
Notice that the most important factor in that calculation is generally not “chance of success”, but rather “chance of 5000x return, given success”.
My understanding is that VCs only invest in about 1% of startups, even though probably 5-10% of startups have reasonably good stories for why they’ll be super successful, and where you could argue “surely they have at least a 0.1% chance of succeeding, so let’s invest in all of them.” If VCs lowered their standards by 5-10x, they would not make any money; that’s what I was trying to say.
The question isn’t how do you distinguish bitcoin from the 1% of startups that are worth investing in; it’s how do you distinguish it from the 5-10% of startups that look like they’re worth investing in according to the arguments in OP?
It seems to me that you’re conflating “succeeding” and “returning 5000x my money”. I think it’s obviously true that most startups don’t have a 0.1% chance of returning 5000x your money.
Notice that the most important factor in that calculation is generally not “chance of success”, but rather “chance of 5000x return, given success”.