okay, sure, this one time I might have made a lot of money, but most of the time I would waste a bunch of money/time/other resources.
This seems like a good heuristic, but is it actually true that Bitcoin was an undifferentiated member of an extremely large class? I agree that the availability heuristic is very important here, but I’m struggling to think of a single thing in the same reference class (maybe cryonics? MIRI? Nootropics?). If anyone can give me examples of “stuff lots of people on LessWrong liked that could have huge payouts”, that would be much appreciated.
This seems like a good heuristic, but is it actually true that Bitcoin was an undifferentiated member of an extremely large class? I agree that the availability heuristic is very important here, but I’m struggling to think of a single thing in the same reference class (maybe cryonics? MIRI? Nootropics?). If anyone can give me examples of “stuff lots of people on LessWrong liked that could have huge payouts”, that would be much appreciated.