Fair question. I’d expect an LW post & discussion of similar size to this one to cause 10^-3 to 10^-4 suicides, but I might now be anchoring on your reply. (Also, that expected value only counts one side of the ledger; I’m ignoring the possibility of the discussion discouraging people from committing suicide.)
If the chance would be p=0.001 that the post kills someone, is that small?
To me, it feels big, in the sense of disproportionate, but small in absolute terms.
How small is small? If the chance would be p=0.001 that the post kills someone, is that small?
Fair question. I’d expect an LW post & discussion of similar size to this one to cause 10^-3 to 10^-4 suicides, but I might now be anchoring on your reply. (Also, that expected value only counts one side of the ledger; I’m ignoring the possibility of the discussion discouraging people from committing suicide.)
To me, it feels big, in the sense of disproportionate, but small in absolute terms.