Note that this is also where some of my “somewhat longer AGI timelines” beliefs come from (i.e 7 years seems more like the minimum to me, whereas I know a couple people listing that as more like a median).
It seems to me that most of the pieces of AGI exist already, but that actually getting from here to AGI will require a 2-3 steps, and each step probably turns out to require some annoying engineering steps.
Note that this is also where some of my “somewhat longer AGI timelines” beliefs come from (i.e 7 years seems more like the minimum to me, whereas I know a couple people listing that as more like a median).
It seems to me that most of the pieces of AGI exist already, but that actually getting from here to AGI will require a 2-3 steps, and each step probably turns out to require some annoying engineering steps.