Richard Dawkins assigned theism approximately the same probability.
Well, if we’re going to start dropping names, Eliezer would “be substantially more worried about a lottery device with a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance of destroying the world, than a device which destroyed the world if the Judeo-Christian God existed.” It’s not the same hypothesis, but it’s close, and it’s stupid to use ethos so much anyway.
I can understand if you think my confidence in atheism is low, but is so ludicrously low that it deserves 9 downvotes?
No, it’s not so low that it deserves 9 downvotes. The fact that it has received so many is disturbing.
What probability would you assign theism?
I think I’ll side with the perspective advanced by Eliezer here:
Any numerical founding at all is likely to be better than a vague feeling of uncertainty; humans are terrible statisticians. But pulling a number entirely out of your butt, that is, using a non-numerical procedure to produce a number, is nearly no foundation at all; and in that case you probably are better off sticking with the vague feelings of uncertainty.
Well, if we’re going to start dropping names, Eliezer would “be substantially more worried about a lottery device with a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance of destroying the world, than a device which destroyed the world if the Judeo-Christian God existed.” It’s not the same hypothesis, but it’s close, and it’s stupid to use ethos so much anyway.
No, it’s not so low that it deserves 9 downvotes. The fact that it has received so many is disturbing.
I think I’ll side with the perspective advanced by Eliezer here: